Analysis-Bracing for Trump tariffs, China's Xi makes diplomatic push at global summits

By Eduardo Baptista and Lisandra Paraguassu

In his first global meetings since Donald Trump was reelected to lead the U.S., Chinese President Xi Jinping went on a diplomatic offensive, hedging against expected new tariffs and preparing to exploit potential future rifts between Washington and its allies.

At meeting after meeting, from APEC in Peru to G20 in Brazil over the last week, Xi sought to draw a contrast with Trump's "America First" message, presenting himself as a predictable defender of the multilateral global trade order.

Summit organisers, diplomats and negotiators also describe a noticeable shift from previous summits in a more constructive posture by Chinese diplomats, who were less focused on their narrow interests and more involved in building a broader consensus.

The outreach is urgent for Beijing. While better prepared for another Trump White House - with many tech companies far less reliant on U.S. imports - China is also more vulnerable after its economy was hit by a huge property crisis.

Much of China's attention has focused on the Global South, with state news agency Xinhua praising the G20 for including the African Union as one of the members. The voice of the Global South needed to be "not merely heard but also translated into tangible influence," Xinhua said.

During his G20 speech on Monday, Xi reiterated China's position on "unilaterally opening our doors wider to the least developed countries," touting China's move to give all such countries "zero-tariff treatment for 100 percent tariff lines."

By making such overtures, China wants to expand its leading position in parts of the developing world where the U.S. has long lagged due to its inability to match the billion-dollar investments that China's state-led economy has marshalled.

“To position China as a defender of globalisation and a critic of protectionism, this calculated messaging comes at a time when many countries in the Global South fear the potential return of indiscriminate trade and tariff policies from the U.S., particularly under Trump’s influence,” said Sunny Cheung, associate fellow for China Studies at Jamestown Foundation, a think tank based in Washington DC.

"Xi's remarks aim to present China as a more stable and sensible and most importantly a reciprocal partner in contrast to perceived U.S. unpredictability."

CONCILIATORY TONE

Trump has pledged to impose tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of 60%, and a Reuters poll of economists found they expected the U.S. would impose tariffs of nearly 40%, potentially slicing growth in the world's second-biggest economy by up to 1 percentage point.

Former Chinese diplomats privately acknowledge that developing countries won't make up for that loss, but Xi has been betting heavily on the expansion of BRICS and mending fences with Asian neighbours, from India to Japan to Australia.

European countries, also threatened by Trump with tariffs, sought to strike a conciliatory tone with Xi at the latest round of meetings.

German chancellor Olaf Scholz said Berlin would work for a mediated solution to an EU-China dispute over Chinese electric vehicles as fast as possible during his meeting Xi.

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer struck an upbeat tone in the first meeting between the countries' two leaders since 2018, saying he would like to engage with Beijing on areas such as trade, the economy and climate, and have broader engagement on science, technology, health and education.

Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, said European allies of the U.S. would not "embrace" China if Trump’s protectionist policies were aimed at them "but there would be more cooperation".

LIMITS OF OUTREACH

Behind the scenes, diplomats said they also noted a change in China’s behaviour at these multinational gatherings, with Beijing officials getting involved in a wider set of issues.

“China traditionally stayed much more discreet and defended only its most essential interests,” according to a Brazilian diplomat.

“They seem to be realising today that more engagement is required of them. It's not enough to build economic power, diplomacy is important for their own interests and the position they want to have in the world,” he added.

To be sure, some analysts say the Chinese outreach belies tensions between Beijing and other countries that were not present when Trump first took office, making his return unlikely to bring about a total reordering of the geopolitical landscape.

Western countries have long accused China of unfair trade practices, saying its state support for manufacturers, coupled with depressed domestic demand, is pushing excessive Chinese supply onto global markets.

China's outreach could also be a hard sell in its immediate neighbourhood, where its ships have repeatedly clashed with the Philippines and other neighbors over territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Shi Yinhong, a professor at Renmin University in Beijing, was skeptical of the notion that Trump's return would give China more leverage when dealing with the EU and other U.S. allies, highlighting the proliferation of conflicts over Ukraine, Taiwan, and elsewhere.

"China, of course, likes to improve relations with the EU and its major powers, but without much cost," said Shi.

That meant it would not make major concessions on trade, human rights, and territorial disputes "with or without Trump, which in turn makes major and lasting rapprochement impossible," he added.

Shi also said that China's ability to invest and take advantage of costly Global South infrastructure projects was diminished due to its sputtering economy.

And even among these like-minded countries there is underlying unease about China's growing clout, other experts say, pointing as an example to Brazil's move to not join Xi's signature Belt and Road Initiative.

"Brazil has some concerns about the relationship with China on who is the dominant partner and a desire to not be a satellite and have a more equal, balanced trade relationship with more value added on the Brazilian side," said Robert Evan Ellis, a professor at the U.S. Army War College.