Analysis-Mexico to feel initial blow from Trump victory but has room to negotiate

By Cassandra Garrison and Diego Oré

Mexico must maneuver carefully now that Donald Trump has secured his return to the U.S. presidency, but Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum still has room to negotiate and soften the impact on trade, migration and security.

Trump's campaign rhetoric, including 200% tariffs on cars coming from Mexico, mass deportations, and U.S. military action against drug cartels, puts Sheinbaum in a difficult position. An initial deterioration in the relationship between the two countries - and a blow to the Mexican peso - is likely.

But in the longer term, analysts say, Mexico has some leverage, particularly on migration, that could help dilute some of Trump's pledges in areas such as trade and security.

"What we know about Trump is that he is transactional," said Mariana Campero, senior associate with the CSIS Americas Program.

Campero said Sheinbaum - who took office last month - will be best served by taking a page from the playbook of her mentor and predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Lopez Obrador found a way to work with Trump during his first term, delivering greater enforcement on migration and steering relations clear of the U.S. economic policy options that would have been most damaging to Mexico.

"Sheinbaum could say 'Okay, Mexico can take (deported) Mexican nationals back, but you won't impose the tariffs,'" Campero added.

Mexico could also lean on U.S. companies, many of which benefit significantly from the North American USMCA trade pact, to lobby against major tariff increases. The current USMCA was negotiated under Trump and ended up far less damaging for Mexico than Mexican officials had initially feared.

USMCA is up for review in 2026 and those discussions are set to be a key moment in the Sheinbaum-Trump relationship. Mexico will likely start preparing right away with "a better defined and more aggressive strategy" to identify politicians who could be good at communicating with Trump, said Antonio Ocaranza, who was spokesman under former President Ernesto Zedillo.

Sheinbaum's appointment of Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard - a former foreign relations chief under Lopez Obrador who has personal experience dealing with Trump - was seen as a powerful signal that Mexico is readying itself with its best political firepower for the USMCA review, analysts said.

Another area of potential tension is China.

Despite U.S. pressure, Mexico has let Chinese companies expand their presence in recent years and is considering an incentive program open to companies from any country interested in investing in Mexico.

Trump, meanwhile, has pledged a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and at least a 10% levy on all other imports.

Mexico's incentive program to attract investment- which does not exclude China - could set it on a collision course with the Trump administration.

"This is not good news in the sense of what is coming up for the bilateral relationship," said Lila Abed, director of the Washington-based Wilson Center's Mexico Institute, adding that Mexico's dealings with China could be a major sticking point in the USMCA review.

When it comes to drugs and security, Mexico will also be expecting a rough ride.

Sheinbaum's administration is acutely aware that curbing the flow of fentanyl, the deadly synthetic opioid killing tens of thousands of Americans a year, will be high on the agenda between the two leaders, analysts said. Sheinbaum will need to be prepared to cooperate, and show results, in order to gain the political capital needed to avert Trump's more radical ideas - such as U.S. military intervention against Mexican cartels.

Any such incursion would risk huge damage to relations between the interdependent economies but cannot be ignored, according to Abed.

"I think it's a real option that's on the table," she said.