Analysis-Myanmar's deadly earthquake brings diplomatic payoff for junta chief

By Devjyot Ghoshal and Panu Wongcha-um

Myanmar's deadliest natural disaster in years has strengthened the position of ruling general Min Aung Hlaing, by opening diplomatic channels closed for four years after his junta ousted an elected government to unleash a brutal civil war.

Just before Friday's quake of magnitude 7.7 that killed almost 2,900 people, the junta chief was readying for a rare foreign visit to a regional summit in Thailand, as aides worked the phones to arrange meetings with other leaders.

It is still unclear if Min Aung Hlaing will attend the BIMSTEC grouping's summit in Bangkok this week, but the disaster has helped end his isolation by most world leaders over a war that displaced 3.5 million and decimated the economy.

"The junta knows that regional powers jostling for influence in Myanmar, like India, China, and Russia would want to use this opportunity to strengthen their own toehold in the country," said Angshuman Choudhury, an analyst based in Singapore.

"By publicly and directly engaging with regional capitals, it can demonstrate its supposed indispensability as Myanmar's primary public authority."

A junta spokesman did not respond to telephone calls from Reuters to seek comment.

In the past week, Min Aung Hlaing has spoken with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim - conversations that have led to a flurry of international aid.

Just weeks after the junta reaffirmed plans for a general election in December, one of the impoverished nation's strongest earthquakes in a century has opened a new window for its leader to engage with regional powers.

The junta had steadily lost ground in the conflict sparked by the 2021 coup, suffering a string of battlefield defeats and piling unprecedented pressure on Min Aung Hlaing himself.

Key allies such as China have backstopped the junta, with efforts such as pushing major anti-junta groups to stop fighting, but even Beijing had not entirely embraced the embattled general.

He did not get an audience with Xi when he visited China in November for the first time since the coup, for example.

But during a state visit to Moscow last month, Min Aung Hlaing held court with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, one of his earliest backers after the coup.

"I would think he's getting like everything he ever dreamt of and more right now," said a diplomatic source in the commercial capital of Yangon, referring to the Moscow visit, the telephone call with Modi and a meeting of the ASEAN grouping.

"He's back in the circle. He has a seat at the table."

However, the junta is doing what it can to benefit from the crisis and deny assistance to civilians and opposition groups, said a second diplomatic source in the country.

Millions of dollars in aid, relief supplies and hundreds of rescue workers from countries such as China, India, Russia and Southeast Asia, have flooded Myanmar since the quake, though the junta keeps up military operations despite ceasefire calls.

The junta could exploit the crisis to strengthen its position in Myanmar's battlefield, Choudhury added.

"The quake will complicate the resistance's fight and its ability to retain support from the local population."

TIGHTROPE WALK

Some regime hardliners believe the junta can continue with the help of a handful of allies, said Sihasak Phuangketkeow, a former Thai vice minister for foreign affairs who visited Myanmar last month.

"They see the world order as shifting, and that there is a new pole with China, Russia and India," Sihasak told Reuters.

"They think Myanmar may be able to thrive without other engagement."

If Min Aung Hlaing were to attend this week's BIMSTEC summit, he would get a further opportunity for diplomatic validation, such as more engagement with India and Thailand.

BIMSTEC, or the Bay of Bengal initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, comprises Thailand, Myanmar, India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan.

"What I got from my recent trip was that Min Aung Hlaing doesn't want to be just under China only," said Sihasak.

"It is about how we can assert our own position. We should not let this opportunity to engage Myanmar slip by."

In Bangkok, the junta chief could meet Modi, who has rushed aid and personnel to Myanmar since the quake, said three sources with knowledge of discussions.

"Modi, particularly, has already indicated that he is willing to directly engage," said Choudhury, referring to the two leaders' call.

The visit may also give Min Aung Hlaing a chance to meet Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai prime minister whom Malaysia's Anwar appointed a personal adviser in his capacity as chairman of ASEAN.

Some analysts say Thailand is walking a tightrope by giving legitimacy to Min Aung Hlaing as he battles the armed resistance which has eroded his grip on Myanmar.

"There's a nasty, brutal, violent civil war," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University.

"Thailand has to be very careful because it has a long border with Myanmar and lots at stake."