Biggest winners and losers of the 2025 German federal elections
In a night that reshaped Germany’s political landscape, the 2025 federal elections delivered a mix of dramatic victories and surprising setbacks.
Drawing on detailed analyses of the grounds, we examine which parties emerged as the biggest winners and losers in this transformative electoral contest.
The Biggest Winners
CDU/CSU’s Western Dominance
Despite rising competition, the CDU/CSU alliance, with 28.6% of the total votes,, maintained a robust presence in the Western states. Their sustained dominance in the West reaffirms their longstanding support base, even as other regions witness dramatic shifts in the political landscape.
AfD’s Eastern Surge
Glaring is the significant breakthrough of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Eastern Germany. By tapping into regional concerns and nationalist sentiment, the party secured a commanding 20.8% of the votes and lead in the east, signalling a clear shift in voter priorities away from traditional powerhouses.
Die Linke’s Breakthrough
Far-left Die Linke achieved a milestone by surpassing the 8% threshold nationally, particularly excelling in Eastern regions. This performance suggests that the party’s message resonates with a growing segment of voters who are seeking alternatives to the established political order.
The Biggest Losers
SPD’s Struggles Nationwide
Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) faced its steepest decline in recent history, failing to surpass the 30% mark in any region. The party only secured 16.4%. This shortfall reflects the conflicts in the party which led to the collapse of the party after the sacking of Finance Minister and FDP leader Christian Lindner in November 2024.
The Greens’ Mixed Performance
While the Greens delivered strong performances in major urban centres, there are reports that their appeal faltered in other regions, resulting in overall losses. The party’s uneven results point to the challenge of broadening their base beyond metropolitan areas, despite their clear strength in cities.
BSW’s Narrow Miss
Both outlets underscored the dramatic nature of the election night for BSW, which missed the parliamentary threshold by just 0.03%. This razor-thin margin not only deprived them of representation but also highlighted the fierce competition and unpredictability that characterized the entire election.
Looking Ahead
With the final seat distribution now set, all eyes are on the upcoming coalition negotiations. The divergent regional results are likely to complicate the formation of a stable government, as parties work to bridge the gaps between winning strongholds and underperforming regions.
The likely coalition will be CDU/CSU with the Greens and SPD. However, throughout the election campaign, the CDU dismissed any possibility of joining forces with the Greens. However, on ARD's Berliner Runde, Markus Söder—the leader of the CDU’s sister party, the CSU—revealed that a coalition with the Greens is now under consideration.
Which parties do you think the final coalition will constitute and why?
