Blinken heads to Europe for Ukraine talks ahead of Trump return

By Simon Lewis

The outgoing Biden administration's top diplomat, Antony Blinken, heads to Brussels on Tuesday for talks with European allies concerned that President-elect Donald Trump could abandon Ukraine in its war with Russia.

In his first overseas trip since Trump's Nov. 5 election victory, Secretary of State Blinken will stop in Brussels ahead of scheduled visits to Peru and Brazil later this week, according to an announcement.

In meetings with NATO and European Union officials, Blinken will "discuss support for Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s aggression," the State Department announcement said, without elaborating on what message he will deliver.

As well as providing billions of dollars in military aid for Ukraine, President Joe Biden worked to expand NATO and rallied countries around the world to isolate Russia in the wake of Moscow's 2022 full-scale invasion.

Trump has been critical of Biden's assistance for Ukraine, fueling concern about the future of support for President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's government under a Republican-controlled White House, Senate and possibly the House of Representatives.

Ukraine's military is under increasing pressure from Russia along a more than 1,000-km front line stretching Ukraine's already outnumbered troops.

Biden officials have said they will push to deploy aid already appropriated for Ukraine before Trump takes office on Jan. 20, in hopes of helping Kyiv's forces push back Russian troops, who have been gaining territory.

"We are working hard to leave Ukraine in as strong a position as possible, both by surging assistance between now and the end of the administration and coordinating with partners around the world to ensure they are ready to step into any breach," said a U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

That includes the European allies Blinken will meet in Brussels but also others like South Korea, which could play a critical role given its alarm over the deepening alliance between Russia and North Korea, the official said.

Ukraine said last week it had clashed with some of an estimated 11,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia's Kursk region.

"The most important work that they can do ... is to essentially turn as much of this over to the Europeans as possible," said Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of the New America think tank and a former State Department official.

European countries have been preparing for a possible second Trump presidency, but are keen to signal publicly that they will work with Trump, she said.

"(Blinken) may be able to do some behind-the-scenes, low-profile stuff," Slaughter said, as well as "reminding Europeans that they still have a lot of friends in the United States, even if the government is going to take a very different view.”

POTENTIAL PEACE TALKS

Trump's return is also likely to bring NATO-member defense spending back into focus. Most allies now spend above a required 2% of their GDP on defense but Trump has said he would insist on a commitment of 3% from allies.

Trump has railed for years against NATO member countries that failed to meet agreed military spending targets and warned during the campaign that he would not only refuse to defend nations "delinquent" on funding but would also encourage Russia "to do whatever the hell they want" to them.

While he has not outlined a clear plan for the conflict, Trump has said he would quickly end the war.

Ukraine is battling to put itself in a strong position for potential peace talks.

Trump has spoken to Zelenskiy and held a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, according to a source familiar with the conversation, in which the president-elect reportedly urged Putin not to escalate the war in Ukraine. The Kremlin has denied the call took place.

Since Trump's election victory, European leaders have sought to influence him to maintain support for Ukraine by publicly stressing Russia's links to North Korea, Iran and China.

The outgoing Biden team has few options but to try to put Ukraine in the best possible position for potential peace talks, said Daniel Fried, a retired U.S. diplomat now at the Atlantic Council think tank.

That could involve coordinating allies to impose new sanctions on Russia or tighten enforcement of existing ones, Fried said, although any actions taken now could be easily undone by Trump officials.

"If the Biden people try to box them in or score points, the Trump people may just reject it out of hand," he said.