Estonia's top spy says NATO must deter Russia for next 10 to 20 years

By Andrius Sytas

NATO will need to contain Russia for the next 20 years, the head of Estonian foreign intelligence said.

Estonia, which is bordered by Russia and is a member of the alliance, has doubled its defence spending since the war in Ukraine began to 3.4% of its gross domestic product this year, the second largest proportion in NATO, and increased taxes from next year to purchase stockpiles of ammunition for defence.

“The task for NATO in the coming 10-20 years will be to contain or deter Russia so it doesn't get any stupid ideas to push towards the West militarily," Director General Kaupo Rosin told Reuters on Tuesday.

“I think it's doable, but the issue needs to be taken seriously in the West, and that we invest (in defence)."

While Russia has repeatedly denied it has any designs on attacking a NATO country, its defence minister said this week Moscow must be ready to fight the NATO military alliance in Europe in the next decade.

Rosin said: “NATO and national military plans must be credible, must be real and must be backed up with real resources, regarding troops present, follow on units, ammunition. If we do our homework properly, then we will be able to deter Russia."

While he said it was hard for him to envisage Russia negotiating over Ukraine any time soon, he said Russia would be “trying to limit NATO’s activities, NATO infrastructure and the troop presence in the vicinity of Russia”, including in NATO’s eastern flank states.

President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that he was ready to compromise over Ukraine in possible talks with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on ending the war and had no conditions for starting talks with the Ukrainian authorities.

CHINA TECHNOLOGY

Touching also on China during the interview, the top Estonian spy said there could be a risk of blackmail from China if Estonia did not ban Chinese technology in crucial parts of the economy, such as in solar inverters, which connect solar panels to the grid and which could be switched off remotely.

“If there would be a situation where China would like to push us towards a political decision, and some sectors are, in reality, not under our control. That would mean all this equipment would be manipulable from China," said Rosin.

“This scenario is maybe not real today, but we have to avoid that this scenario becomes reality one day."

His comments chime with those of NATO chief Mark Rutte, who said early this month the alliance would step up intelligence sharing and improve the protection of critical infrastructure in the face of "hostile" acts of sabotage against allies by Russia and China.

Russia has dismissed multiple accusations of engaging in hybrid acts.

China has repeatedly denied allegations of spying in Europe. China has also begun in recent years to call out alleged Western hacking operations.