GDP projections for OECD countries in 2025 and what they mean
As of December 2024, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released its latest Economic Outlook, projecting global GDP growth to remain resilient despite significant challenges. The global economy is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2025, slightly up from 3.2% in 2024. Inflation within OECD countries is anticipated to ease from 5.4% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, supported by a still restrictive monetary policy stance in most countries.
Regional Projections:
- United States: GDP growth is projected at 2.8% in 2025, before slowing to 2.4% in 2026.
- Euro Area: A recovery in real household incomes and tight labour markets are expected to drive growth, with GDP projected at 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026.
- Japan: Growth is projected to expand by 1.5% in 2025 but then decline to 0.6% in 2026.
- China: The economy is expected to continue to slow, with GDP growth of 4.7% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026.
The OECD emphasises that while the global economy has shown resilience, significant challenges remain. Geopolitical tensions pose short-term risks, public debt ratios are high, and medium-term growth prospects are modest.
Policy actions are recommended to safeguard macroeconomic stability, including carefully calibrated monetary policy easing to ensure inflationary pressures are durably contained and fiscal policies aimed at rebuilding fiscal space to address future spending pressures
The OECD's projections for 2025 indicate a stable yet cautious global economic outlook, with varying growth trajectories across different regions and a focus on policy measures to address underlying challenges.
