Is Russia the solution to Libya and the Sahelian crisis?

The Libyan Arab Jamahiriya under Muammar Gaddafi through the 1970s and 1980s had friendly ties with the Soviet Union to help provide Libya with weaponry and military advisers.

However, the relationship which became redundant and subtle following years of Libya’s political turmoil seemed to have been revived by Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the supreme leader of the self-proclaimed Libyan National Army.

Haftar's association with the Russians dates back to 2016 when he sought foreign military expertise in his efforts to fight against the Jihadists. His quest led him to engage with Russia, France, and the United States, aiming to establish his strongholds in Benghazi and Derna.

Consequently, in 2023 alone the two counterparts have met three times in the space of four months – August, September and December. In August, Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-bek Yevkurov was in Benghazi, Haftar's stronghold, upon an invitation from Haftar, giving the first conspicuous signal of a strategic partnership. The visit aimed to discuss prospects for cooperation in combating international terrorism and other joint actions. "This is the first official visit of a Russian military delegation to Libya…During the visit, it is planned to discuss prospects for cooperation in combating international terrorism and other issues of joint action," Moscow's defence ministry is quoted by Africanews.

In late September, Haftar reciprocated the visit by going to Moscow for talks with Russian officials on developments in Libya and bilateral relations. Reuters reported that the two counterparts - Russian President Vladimir Putin and Haftar - spoke extensively about “the situation in Libya and the region as a whole,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov was quoted. Again, On September 17, Haftar convened with Yevkurov in Benghazi during a Russian delegation's involvement in search and rescue efforts in Derna. These efforts were in response to the severe flooding triggered by Storm Daniel, AlWasat reported.

Then in December, the two reconvened in Benghazi. These were the first interactions since 2019.

Meanwhile, the US has taken exception to this romanticization of politics between the two counterparts, particularly with the presence of Wagner forces in Libya. "They plunder the countries in which they are located, endanger public security and cause a lack of respect for human rights,” the US State Department's spokesman Ned Price is quoted by Libya Observer.

Why Libya?

The Center for Strategic and International Study (CSIS) analysis suggests that currently, Russia’s rekindled interest in Libya is a four-fold tale. Thus, to develop Haftar or an alternative as a future client; to revitalise investments in Libya’s energy sector and explore new commercial opportunities; secure basing along NATO’s Southern Flank, utilizing Libya's strategic position; and remind the West of Russia's global reach and influence.

The Russians are also reportedly pushing for the Haftar to sign an agreement, outlining the provision of air defence systems and pilot training. In return, there is a proposal to grant concessions for air and naval bases in Libya, Jonathan Winer, former US ambassador to Tripoli (2013-2016) posted on X.

Changing dynamics: Russia’s tracks in the Sahel region

It may not be a coincidence that Russia seems to have simultaneously pitched camp in the Sahel Region offering better options to Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger following their botched affairs with their EU partners. Military leaders from Burkina Faso and Niger recently announced their withdrawal from the G5 Sahel anti-jihadi force, citing a lack of achievement and France's outsized role. "The organization is failing to achieve its objectives. Worse, the legitimate ambitions of our countries, of making the G5 Sahel a zone of security and development, are hindered by institutional red tape from a previous era, which convinces us that our process of independence and dignity is not compatible with G5 participation in its current form," they said. The countries are looking to form a Federation away from France’s interests.

Russia has strategically been available, providing amongst others military cooperation, food security, resources and more interestingly promising peace.

In May, immediately following the exit of France troops, Burkina Faso’s interim military leader Ibrahim Traore hailed Russia as one of their new allies saying, “The departure of the French army does not mean that France is not an ally…But we have strategic allies too. We have new forms of cooperation. Russia, for example, is a strategic ally. “I am satisfied with the cooperation with Russia. It’s frank,” Al Jazeera reported.

Later in September, a Russian delegation led by Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov visited Burkina Faso to follow up on talks between Traore and Putin in July. The parties addressed, "areas of cooperation (which) primarily concern the military domain, including the training of Burkinabe officer cadets and officers at all levels, including pilots in Russia," a statement said.

Russia, later in October, signed a nuclear power cooperation agreement with Mali and Burkina Faso for the development of nuclear facilities in the two countries. “Burkina Faso is importing energy resources from Ghana and neighbouring countries. [If] we are able to construct nuclear power plants by 2030, then I hope we will be able to address the problem of energy deficit. At every stage, we want to have more innovative technology and we need … support on the part of Russian companies,” Burkina Faso’s Minister of Mines Simon-Pierre Boussim is quoted by Construct Africa.

Niger, like the other two, after breaking ties with its EU partners announced its plans to strengthen defence cooperation with Russia. In more drastic events, the Nigerien junta denounced security cooperation agreements with European partners and repealed laws penalizing the illegal trafficking of immigrants, amongst others. "Our alliances with the West have prevailed since colonization and have not brought us good fortune. We need to get rid of them and move closer to other countries," Le Monde quotes a State official.

With these flirtatious encounters, Russia is in a position to offer some solutions to the security challenges these nations are experiencing. "It must be admitted that Russia has the necessary resources - technical, economic and human - to help Burkina Faso and Mali meet their shared security, humanitarian and development challenges," Malian political scientist Boubou Doucoure told TASS.