Instant view: Little market impact expected from Trump guilty verdict

Instant view: Little market impact expected from Trump guilty verdict

Donald Trump became the first U.S. president to be convicted of a crime on Thursday when a New York jury found him guilty of falsifying documents to cover up a payment to silence a porn star ahead of the 2016 election.

After deliberations over two days, the 12-member jury announced it had found Trump guilty on all 34 counts he faced. Unanimity was required for any verdict.

The verdict, which came back after the close of the U.S. stock market, plunges the United States into unexplored territory ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election, when Trump, the Republican candidate, will try to win the White House back from Democratic President Joe Biden.

Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group, parent of the former president's social media site Truth Social, fell 14% after the verdict.

COMMENTS:

TOM HAYES, CHAIRMAN, GREAT HILL CAPITAL, NEW YORK

“I think the next step will likely be an appeal. And if he appeals that would get pushed out past the election. So ultimately, the risk is that the rest of the world views this as a political prisoner, which undermines our legal and economic system."

"If the world starts to view it that the last bastion of democracy, free markets, fair legal system, is perceived to be tainted, you could start to see a shift in capital flows. We’ve been a major beneficiary of equity flows and demand for our Treasuries.”

BILL STRAZZULLO, CHIEF MARKETS STRATEGIST, BELL CURVE TRADING, BOSTON

“What I think ... is that the biggest threat to the economy, markets and democracy is Trump. He gets more and more unhinged every day and the fact that he’s convicted on all counts, I assume, will resonate with some people.

"The election will more than likely be a close election because we have a divided country. He has done everything he can to circumvent these various charges. For the American people, there’s no excuse. He’s a convicted felon. Period. End of story. If this is the guy you want in the White House, shame on you and shame on us as a country . . . The fact that today is a serious blow to his reelection chances is a big deal.”

JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, CRESSET CAPITAL, CHICAGO

“I don’t think there will be a lot of impact.”

“The market will just digest it and move on.”

“We likely know most of (Trump and Biden's) thoughts on economic policy and other crucial questions. Certainly, both seem to agree on running large deficits.”

Ablin said that even looking past the November election date, market volatility – as reflected in options pricing – remains low.

KEITH LERNER, CO-CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, TRUIST ADVISORY SERVICES, ATLANTA

“There was a lot of uncertainty about the election before this. This adds to some of the uncertainty going forward, but in the interim is probably not going to be a significant market mover, and the market right now is relatively flat reacting to this news.”

JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL, RICHMOND, VIRGINIA

“I don’t know if it has any effect on markets necessarily. But it certainly has an effect on the recently-IPOed DJT. It’s market-moving news for that. The market has already discounted a guilty conviction in the hush money case because it was widely believed to be more of a side show. I think it would have been much more news for the market had he been not convicted. But at this particular moment, markets have been down all week for other reasons, specifically about inflation. That’s what markets is concerned with and not the theater of the trial of a former president.”

PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK

“I don’t think it means much to the markets, what matters tomorrow is the PCE report. As we get closer to the election it could make a difference.”

“What does this mean going forward? We’ll have to wait and see if the Republicans even nominate him. Now that (Trump has) been found guilty there’s a good possibility that they’ll have a change of heart.”

“But regarding tomorrow, PCE will dominate the market action.”