Military-led Sahel countries need ECOWAS to sustain 'insignificant' economies - Political analyst
Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali will struggle without the West African bloc ECOWAS because their economies are very insignificant, an analyst told Global South World.
The military-led Sahel trio countries stand to gain more from their membership in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) than the regional bloc benefits from their participation, said geopolitical and security expert Felix Owusu who works with Riley Risk Incorporated in the U.S.
“If you put all three states together, their economies will not equal half of what Nigeria’s economy is worth. So, in terms of economic size, it is very insignificant,” he told GSW in an interview.
Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, three West African states led by the military, announced on January 28 they were immediately leaving the 15-member regional bloc ECOWAS where goods and citizens move freely. This comes after the suspension of the three nations by ECOWAS in the aftermath of coups in the respective countries.
“If they move, no member state of ECOWAS can question their leadership or its legitimacy. Domestically, these states are going to oppress the opposition. ECOWAS from Abuja has been supporting the opposition, pushing their agenda by telling the junta to move towards transition so that political parties can participate,” he said.
The Sahel Region
These countries are landlocked, which means they do not have access to the coast so they have to rely on the ports of their neighbour coastal states for imports and exports. Even though they can resort to non-member ECOWAS states, “It is more economically efficient to import their goods through coastal ECOWAS member states. If they use any other routes, it is going to be longer, sophisticated and costly for them,” Felix told GSW.
Ethnic groups that live across the borders of ECOWAS member states and the Sahel trio will face difficulties because it is going to disrupt the social and cultural life they have built over the years.
If they exit ECOWAS, visa-free travel and the right of settlement and work in member countries for citizens of member states will all come to an end. “Kenyans and South Africans trying to enter Nigeria may even get easier than Nigeriens because they are approaching the organization with hostility,” Felix told GSW.
This decision will also affect the support these countries receive from ECOWAS. For instance, in 2013, it took the ECOWAS forces to intervene and stop the JNIM militant group and other militants from overrunning cities in the Sahel.
“Perhaps they see another alternative in Russia,” Felix suspected that it might be the reason for their exit from the bloc.
ECOWAS
ECOWAS, responding to the trio's exit, expresses readiness to negotiate their stay. However, their exit will signal the weakness and failure of the regional bloc, particularly that of the current leadership.
Their exit could also compromise trade and push back the return to civilian rule in the coup countries.
The Sahel has emerged as a global centre for global terrorism, representing 43% of global terrorism-related fatalities in 2022. West Africa is already witnessing the overflow of violent extremism from the Sahel into typically peaceful coastal states like Togo, Benin, and the Ivory Coast.
There is now the possibility of a weak border cooperation to stop extremists from entering the coastal states. “Instead of cooperating with ECOWAS, they might sabotage the bloc by allowing these extremists to cross into ECOWAS member states and cause problems,” Felix said.
The tough stance that ECOWAS took in a bid to force them to return to democratic rule, including heavy sanctions, seems to have intensified the positions of the military-led nations, creating a growing fault line within the regional bloc.
