October-December dry spell predicted to devastate Horn of Africa
The Horn of Africa is expected to experience below-average rainfall during the October-December season, potentially leading to drought conditions, according to international agencies.
The United Nations World Food Programme, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, and the Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development issued an alert on August 2, highlighting climate models predicting a transition to La Niña conditions in the latter half of 2024, which could result in below-average rainfall, Xinhua reported.
"The greatest impacts are expected in central and southern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, and the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya," the agencies stated in an alert issued in Nairobi, Kenya's capital.
Other affected countries include Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania, where the second rainy season occurs from October to December. The first rainy season occurs from March to May.
The agencies warned that below-average rains could lead to "crop failures, deteriorating pastoral conditions, water shortages, atypical livestock movements, increased disease outbreaks, and heightened food insecurity and malnutrition."
They urged humanitarian partners to collaborate with local and national governments to support contingency planning, preparedness activities, and the identification of anticipatory actions to mitigate the impacts of potential drought.
In July, the World Health Organisation (WHO) reported that the Greater Horn of Africa is experiencing one of the worst hunger crises of the last 70 years with millions facing hunger due to one of the worst droughts in recent decades, exacerbated by years of conflict and instability, the COVID-19 pandemic, and rising food prices partly due to the war in Ukraine.
Over 37 million people in the region are facing acute hunger, with approximately seven million children under the age of five acutely malnourished, according to the UN. The food crisis is also leading to a health emergency, with increased risks of disease outbreaks like cholera, measles, and malaria.
