Philippine president's allies poised to take key posts in midterms, poll shows

By Mikhail Flores

Senate candidates backed by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr look set to dominate May midterm elections, with a new poll showing them taking three-quarters of available seats, despite attempts to discredit the government over the arrest of former leader Rodrigo Duterte.

Packed with political heavyweights and wielding outsized influence, the Senate has a high profile in the Philippines, where midterm elections for 12 of its 24 seats are closely watched as a barometer of public support for the president.

The Social Weather Stations poll of 1,800 voters was conducted four days after the still-popular Duterte was transferred to The Hague to face charges of crimes against humanity over a bloody war on drugs that killed thousands of people during his 2016-2022 presidency.

His army of diehard supporters, many online, were quick to portray him as a persecuted hero, framing his arrest as a foreign "kidnapping" facilitated by the Marcos government, which has rejected that.

The May 12 elections have been billed as a proxy battle between the influential Duterte and Marcos families following the acrimonious collapse of their once powerful alliance that propelled Marcos to power in in 2022, with the former president's daughter, Sara Duterte as vice president.

The handover of the elder Duterte to the International Criminal Court was a major blow for a family that has had a stunning change of fortunes, coming only a month after his daughter was impeached by a lower house led by allies of Marcos.

Sara Duterte, who has been tipped as a contender for the 2028 presidency, will go on trial at the Senate later this year and faces removal from her post and a lifetime ban from holding office. The Senators will serve as jurors and to convict Duterte, a two-thirds majority is needed.

The complaint against her stems from allegations she misused public funds, amassed unexplained wealth, and threatened the lives of Marcos, the first lady and the lower house speaker.

Duterte has dismissed the allegations and her father's arrest as politically motivated with the 2028 presidency in mind.

But she still has allies in the Senate and the latest survey indicates two loyalists are likely to be reelected, a former Duterte presidential aide and an ex-police chief who spearheaded the drugs crackdown, which could boost her survival chances.

The May elections will also contest 317 congressional seats and thousands of local posts. Among the candidates is Rodrigo Duterte, running for mayor of his hometown of Davao City, even while detained at The Hague.

Despite fierce criticism over the arrest of the former president, Marcos looks almost certain to consolidate his power in the midterms, according to veteran political analyst and former presidential adviser Ronald Llamas.

"This is now a battle for the government to lose," he said.