Thailand faces challenges in achieving 8.2 million Chinese tourist target by 2024
The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is confronting challenges in meeting its ambitious target of welcoming 8.2 million Chinese tourists in 2024, as analysts adjust their forecasts amid a fragile global economy.
Kasem Prunratanamala, Head of Research at CGS-CIMB Securities (Thailand), expressed skepticism about the feasibility of this goal, leading to a revision of the total foreign arrival forecast for 2024 from 36 million to 32 million, according to a Bangkok Post report.
Despite the introduction of a visa exemption program for Chinese tourists effective from September 25, 2023, until February 29, 2024, the number of arrivals from China has remained modest, averaging around 9,500 per day since last month, compared to the pre-pandemic level of 30,123 daily arrivals in 2019.
To date, approximately 3 million Chinese tourists have visited Thailand this year.
Kasem highlighted that recent events, such as the shooting incident at Siam Paragon in early October, are likely to impede a significant surge in Chinese tourist numbers in the fourth quarter. Discussions with TAT Deputy Governor Nithee Seeprae informed this assessment.
In October, only 285,000 Chinese visitors came to Thailand, constituting 33% of the 852,000 arrivals recorded during the same period in 2019.
The TAT attributes the subdued demand from Chinese tourists to Beijing's emphasis on domestic tourism.
Despite the ongoing recovery, with flight availability from China still 40% below pre-pandemic levels, Kasem expressed doubt that this is the primary factor hindering Chinese tourist resurgence.
The TAT's forecast of 4 million Chinese tourists for this year and 8.2 million in 2024 is viewed as ambitious and challenging by analysts.
The TAT's broader targets include 25-30 million foreign arrivals in 2023 and 35 million in 2024. For domestic tourism, the TAT envisions 160 million trips this year, escalating to 200 million trips in 2024.
