The two Koreas at war: Is reunification a possibility?
Since the 1953 armistice that ended the Korean War, the two Korean states have existed in an ongoing and uneasy rivalry. Nevertheless, since the 1970s, both sides have pursued an official goal of peaceful reunification. Now that North Korea has dropped the goal, is reunification still a possibility?
The Korean War
The Korean War began on June 25, 1950, following five years of escalating tensions on the peninsula. The Northern Korean People's Army invaded South Korea, aiming to unify the country under the communist North Korean regime. The war lasted until July 27, 1953, when an armistice was signed, agreeing to keep the country divided. The Korean War claimed over 2.5 million Korean lives, with North Korea aided by China and South Korea backed by the UN with the U.S.
Unification efforts
The Ministry of Unification, established in 1969, manages South Korea's unification policy, focusing only on North Korea, inter-Korean cooperation and economic ties.
In 1980, the National Unification Advisory Council (NUAC) was formed in South Korea, consisting of functional, local, and overseas members. It aimed to gather public opinions, serve as a central point for national unification preparations, and advise the President on unification policy.
In 2000, South Korean President Kim Dae-jung met North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, marking the first-ever meeting between the heads of the two Koreas. In 2007, South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and Kim Jong-il of North Korea had another summit where they both emphasized the significance of unification. In their joint statements, they put forward several initial programs for unification, such as reuniting families separated by the war, humanitarian efforts, cultural exchanges, and economic development projects. Unfortunately, none of these initiatives have been consistently carried out.
South Korean President, Park Geun Hye formed a special committee in 2014 to "prepare for Korean unification," local media Daily NK reported and in 2019, South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, vowed to achieve the unification of Korea by 2045.
Recent Development
North Korea’s Kim has said the two Koreas are at "extreme" war and it will no longer seek reunification and reconciliation with South Korea. Speaking at the party’s end-of-year meeting, North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un said North Korea has dropped the decade-long reunification goal, saying reunification is impossible, local media NK News reported.
On the other side, South Korea’s top official handling inter-Korean affairs called for stepped-up efforts to prepare for reunification with North Korea in the first week of January. This came days after Kim Jong Un stated that unification was an "impossible" dream.
The unification minister said South Korea will work to “create a path that does not exist and to rediscover the path that seems to have disappeared,” local media NK News reported.
What might be hindering unification?
Geopolitical challenges involve the influence of external powers, particularly China and the United States, and North Korea's possession of nuclear capabilities. There is also a difference in the living standards and productivity between North and South Korea. Various studies on potential reunification suggest that South Korea would bear a significant portion of the economic costs due to its higher per capita GDP and more advanced economy. The concern of how the politics of a united Korea would be managed and by whom also counts.
What would a unified Korea look like? According to the “2040 Korea Unification Vision Report” by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Korea National Diplomatic Academy, if North Korea’s national income were to rise to 70% of South Korea’s by 2040-50, political unification would be achievable. Unification would make Korea the world's 7th largest economy, boasting an 80 million population.
