What a US tariff means for Mexico's prized fruit, avocado

With a production scale of 2,529,581 tonnes per year, Mexico is the world's largest avocado producer, accounting for over 40% of global production.

Despite the US being Mexico's largest market, President Donald Trump's administration has announced a 25% tariff on Mexican imports, including avocados.

Although negotiations have temporarily delayed the implementation of the tariff until March, the eventual outcome could have devastating consequences for both the production and consumption of avocados.

Restaurateurs in the US are bracing themselves for potential price hikes or menu adjustments to maintain customer satisfaction.

Avocados are a staple ingredient in many popular Mexican dishes, such as tacos, guacamole, chipotle, and salads. Consumers can expect to pay more for these items, which may lead to a decline in demand.

National Restaurant Association president and chief executive officer Michelle Korsmo in a statement issued on Friday, January 31, said “In this rapidly changing landscape, small business restaurant operators are assessing how they will be impacted, so they can manage pricing pressures, secure key ingredients, and make potential menu adjustments — all while continuing to serve their communities.

“As the Trump Administration reevaluates trade policies, we are closely monitoring the impacts tariffs will have on food and beverage pricing, domestic sourcing options, and menu adaptation. We will continue to work with the administration to ensure that restaurant operators’ concerns are heard.”

Farmers on the other hand could lose their livelihoods when less or no income is derived from their avocado harvests due to a decline in demand in its largest market.