Trump's Texas border gains highlight Republican inroads in former Democratic stronghold

By Brendan O'Boyle and Brad Heath

The United States' swing toward President-elect Donald Trump in last week's election was pronounced along its border with Mexico, particularly in southern Texas, where Republicans have gained a foothold in traditionally Democratic-voting counties.

Across border counties where nearly all of the ballots have been counted, the president-elect's share of the vote rose almost 10 percentage points from four years ago and was about 20 percentage points higher than in his first presidential campaign in 2016.

Republicans' successes along the southern border with Mexico, where many voters are Hispanic, reflect the party's gains with such voters across the country. It also reflects a focus on immigration, which a Reuters/Ipsos poll last week showed to be the top issue Americans want Trump to tackle in his first 100 days.

Nationally, counties where 40% or more of the citizen voting-age population is Hispanic all moved toward Trump, despite expectations from Democrats that his promises of mass deportation might alienate the demographic.

In Cameron County, Texas, which is roughly 90% Hispanic and home to border city Brownsville, Trump won by more than 5 points, a dramatic reversal from the Democratic ticket's nearly 10-point advantage in 2020 and a lead of over 30 points in 2016.

The county is part of Texas's 27th state Senate district, which Republicans flipped this month after redistricting made it more competitive.

The district is "ground zero for the border crisis," said Adam Hinojosa, the district's state senator-elect, who, according to the Texas Tribune, will be the first Republican to represent any part of the Rio Grande Valley in the state Senate in 150 years.

U.S. Representative Henry Cuellar, one of Texas' longest-serving Democrats in Congress - who won reelection in his southern Texas district by thinner margins than normal but who outperformed Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris - said the Biden administration did not listen to his warnings at the beginning of President Joe Biden's administration about rising unauthorized border crossings.

Cuellar said Biden's broad asylum ban in June was effective but was "just too late" to change voters' perceptions about the border before the Nov. 5 election.

Missteps from national Democrats were echoed at the state level, Cuellar said.

"Republicans were pumping a large amount of money into South Texas. ... And Democrats, the state party, with all due respect, didn't spend any money down there. They put the money into large urban areas."

The Texas Democratic Party did not respond to a request for an interview with the party's chairman, Gilberto Hinojosa, who after the election announced his resignation effective in March.

In a statement announcing his resignation, Hinojosa said the party during his leadership had created "significant and durable gains in our now-Democrat-led big urban counties and cities, as well as in the suburban outer rings."

REPUBLICAN GROUND GAME

Republicans' gains in border countries are "not something that happened overnight," said Joshua Blank, who manages polling and research at the University of Texas at Austin's Texas Politics Project.

"Republicans have been making concerted efforts, especially in the Rio Grande Valley, over the last three to five election cycles to try to identify more voters in these regions," said Blank.

One person leading these efforts was Wayne Hamilton, a longtime Republican political operative in Texas. Hamilton managed Texas Governor Greg Abbott's winning campaign in 2014, which drew attention after Abbott's margin of victory broke 20 points.

Hamilton said Abbott tasked him in 2016 to drive turnout in southern Texas. His first task was recruiting candidates to run in races up and down the ballot.

"We rolled up our sleeves and the first thing we found out is that we didn't have any candidates," said Hamilton, who recruited 54 candidates to run in southern Texas in 2018, a number which grew to over 130 this election.

Engaging Hispanic voters has been critical to the party's improved fortunes, said U.S. Representative Monica De La Cruz, who flipped Texas's 15th Congressional District in 2022 to become the first Latina and the first Republican to represent the district.

"We knocked on thousands and thousands of doors," De La Cruz said.

Her victory in 2022 "was the first time that South Texas ever saw what Republican leadership looked like," she said. "And they liked what they saw."