Turkish support firms for jailed mayor Imamoglu vs Erdogan, polls show

By Birsen Altayli and Jonathan Spicer

Popular support for Ekrem Imamoglu, the Istanbul mayor whose arrest sparked Turkey's largest protests in a decade, has risen further above President Tayyip Erdogan since he was detained and jailed in March, opinion polls show.

Two surveys released in recent days suggest that Imamoglu's detention on March 19 has also reinforced views that he is Erdogan's main rival in any future presidential vote, even as he sits behind bars.

The mayor was jailed on March 23 pending a hearing on corruption charges that he denies - a move that the opposition and some European leaders called politicised and anti-democratic, and which accelerated nationwide rallies.

Erdogan's government rejects the criticism and says the judiciary is independent.

It is unclear when Imamoglu, a two-term mayor, will have his day in court and whether he will be released. Investigations continue after he and more than 100 other officials from Turkey's largest city were detained on various charges.

Surveys conducted in April by Metropoll and Konda, two top pollsters, show Imamoglu topping Erdogan by a comfortable margin in a hypothetical head-to-head election - though a vote is not due until 2028.

They also show that, since the mayor's arrest nearly two months ago, Turkish voters have grown more deeply polarised between Erdogan's AK Party (AKP) and Imamoglu's main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP).

"If the election were held today, and Imamoglu and Erdogan went to the second round vote, Imamoglu would lead by seven (percentage) points," said Ozer Sencar, head of research at Metropoll, which put the mayor's support at 46.7% and the president's at 39.3%.

Metropoll found that both the CHP and the AKP had received a roughly five percentage point boost in support since March, to 34% and 33% respectively, due largely to previously undecided voters picking sides.

Last elected in 2023, Erdogan cannot run again under the law unless an early election is called and is backed by three-fifths of parliament, for which he would need support beyond his ruling conservative coalition.

A CHP public petition calling for Imamoglu's freedom and early elections has surpassed 13 million signatures, according to Milliyet newspaper. The party did not respond when asked for the latest data.

'TWO-HORSE RACE'

Erdogan, who has run Turkey for 22 years, has said that corruption appears deeply entrenched in Imamoglu's former city administration and that the probe will be comprehensive, comments the CHP has slammed as another breach of judicial independence.

The Konda poll showed Imamoglu's support rising well past 40% in April, up from the previous month and sitting comfortably above Erdogan's in a hypothetical head-to-head vote, according to Aydin Erdem, the Istanbul firm's general manager.

Erdogan leads when poll respondents were asked to select from a broader list of nine potential candidates, Konda found.

But the number of undecided voters dropped sharply in April from March, with most backing one of the two men, suggesting the mayor's jailing reinforced a "growing polarization" in politics and the potential future "two horse-race", Erdem said.

The Konda and Metropoll results were largely unpublished beyond clients. Some past survey results have shown Imamoglu's support at similarly elevated levels, including ahead of his decisive municipal election victory last year.

A day before Imamoglu was detained, authorities revoked his university degree, which is required by law for any presidential run. On the day he was jailed, the CHP elected him its official presidential candidate in a previously-scheduled party vote.

The head of another pollster, Mehmet Ali Kulat of MAK, said the future success of Imamoglu and his CHP will hinge largely on whether other opposition parties, particularly the pro-Kurdish DEM Party that backed CHP in the past, lend their support.

DEM is in talks with the government to press for a peace deal with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has said it would dissolve after a call in February by its jailed leader to do so after a decades-long war with the Turkish state.