When Europe has nothing left, it will be reliant on Africa: George Forrest’s warning

This is part of a message from African agricultural titan George Forrest, who predicts that within three decades the continent will become the breadbasket of the world.

“When you look at the global backdrop and what happened with the war in Ukraine and, given my first-hand experience, I said to myself that Africa is too reliant on other countries, on Europe, on Asia and that Africa has the potential to feed the world,” Forrest said in an interview for Global South World. 

Forrest, whose businesses cultivate tens of thousands of hectares of land in the Democratic Republic of Congo, has turned author for a new book called: Africa Can Feed the World. He says his experiences in the fertile, untapped landscapes of his homeland have convinced him that a tipping point, first towards self-sufficiency and then towards agri-exports, is far nearer than people realise.

Africa holds 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, according to the World Bank, yet contributes less than 10% of global agricultural output. This paradox is not due to poor soil or climate — in fact, regions such as the Guinea Savannah and the Congolese Plateau offer fertile soils, reliable rainfall, and abundant water reserves. Rather, the gap stems from decades of underinvestment in rural infrastructure, poor access to markets and finance, and minimal technological input.

Forrest points to the example of Brazil. Between the 1970s and early 2000s, Brazil transformed its Cerrado region - a once-dismissed savannah - into one of the world’s most productive agricultural zones. This was achieved through a combination of state research institutions, incentives for private sector investment, and the development of infrastructure like rural roads and silos. Today, Brazil is the world’s largest exporter of soybeans, beef, and poultry. 

As climate change threatens traditional breadbaskets like the American Midwest, Australia, and parts of India due to extreme weather events and soil degradation, some parts of sub-Saharan Africa may be able to make up the deficit.

However, he is scathing about the attitude of external players, and Europe in particular. As European policymakers riding a nationalist populist wave seek to close borders and cut development funding, Forrest warns that they may one day regret treating Africa as a threat.

‘Broken ties’

“The day when Europe has nothing, it will be dependent on others. And it will depend on whom? That’s what I’m saying. That in 2050, if we are not careful, it’s Europe which will be migrating to Africa…. So we need to maintain the ties that we have broken. That is what I am asking. That Europe comes to its senses and considers Africa rather as a partner, not to exploit but for win-win relations.”

In particular, Forrest is critical of policies which prevent younger generations of Africans from travelling to Europe to study - a decision which pushes them towards Russia, China and India, where they will develop relationships and sympathies for the future. By 2050, Africa’s population is projected to exceed 2.5 billion people, with over 60% under the age of 25. 

Forrest’s criticisms extend to the international justice system, which he sees as unfairly focused on Africa.

“When you look at cases around illicitly obtained assets, who gets prosecuted? Only Africans. What about the Middle East? Have we seen asset appropriation there? Did we prosecute people from China or elsewhere? No. Let’s be fair, we can’t have two standards, two tiers, let’s be evenhanded.”

Indeed, Forrest sees the fight against corruption waged upon Africa as being counterproductive, because it drives away the investment which is needed to improve the situation. Non-governmental organisations that come with lectures and impose standards bring nothing but drive away business investment, he claims.

“The more you have investors, the more you have promising projects. The more the government and the authorities are forced to keep rules and structures, the more you will have a better justice system because corruption will gradually disappear. It’s true that it is a curse, but let’s be realistic.”

Dare to dream

But for Forrest, everything comes back to agriculture, which has the potential both to supercharge African economies and remove the curse of hunger and poor nutrition from their populations. 

The African Development Bank estimates that agriculture could be worth $1 trillion to the continent’s economy by 2030. But the scale of investment required is also significant - estimated at $80 billion per year.

While the scale of the ambition requires industrial methods, Forrest remains convinced that there can still be a place for smaller family farms. And he insists that increasing food production will not threaten the ecological marvels of the tropical forests of Congo or other nations.

“It’s not a question of replacing the forests. We don’t need to touch the forests. There’s plenty of available space, even in the Savannah.”

Forrest is an optimist, but also a pragmatist. He believes greater use of science and technology is essential to achieving his vision. His giant agri-food business GoCongo, uses extensive soil testing to determine which crops are best suited to each area. This choice needs to be informed by study, not habit, he states. As an example, he highlights French efforts to impose rice cultivation in the country to replace stocks lost after the demise of IndoChina, which were often poorly located and resulted in low yields.

But with science, human effort and natural bounty, Forrest is confident Africa’s detractors will be proved wrong and his 2050 vision will come to pass.

“In order to do something, first you need a dream. When you dream, you have a goal in mind. This is what you do to achieve it.”