Why Mexico's 2024 election could be most violent in history
As Mexico prepares to elect a new leader, experts fear the upcoming elections could be the most violent in the nation's history with the possibility of organised crime infiltrating the electoral process as cartels wield more influence than ever.
The upcoming elections on June 2, 2024, which could welcome the Latin nation's first female president feature nearly 20,000 public positions.
However, the lead-up to these elections has been marred by escalating violence. Civic Data, a watchdog group, reported that "2023 was the most violent year in our database. And everything suggests that 2024 will be worse."
Past elections
Mexico's criminal organisations have historically resorted to targeted violence to boost their political influence and safeguard their illicit operations. From 2018 to March 2024, 1,709 attacks, murders, assassinations, and threats have been recorded against individuals involved in politics or government, as well as against government or party facilities.
In past elections, approximately half of the political violence was directly linked to organized crime, with political figures being targeted at a rate of one per week leading up to the 2018 elections. Similarly, in the 2021 nationwide election, around three dozen candidates fell victim to violence.
Build-up to the 2024 elections
The build-up to the 2024 elections has been marked by a disturbing surge in attacks against politicians. More than 170 such incidents have been reported, with two mayoral candidates in Maravatio, Mexico, falling victim to fatal shootings within hours of each other. Over the past year, approximately 30 candidates have been assassinated.
Regionally, the violence is concentrated in the west and centre of the country, with Guerrero, Michoacán, and Morelos bearing the brunt of the attacks. Julian Lopez, a coordinator for the Citizen Movement party in Guerrero, was abducted, beaten, and abandoned.
Since September 2023, reports indicate 300 instances of political violence, involving 399 victims, averaging 1.8 victims per day. With a little over 60 days remaining until the election, the current electoral process spanning 2023-2024 is witnessing the highest levels of violence in Mexico's modern history.
Candidates or aspirants account for 31.8% of the attacks, while 24.1% target current or former public officials and 22.1% are aimed at politicians or former politicians. The remaining victims include family members and collaterals. During this period, 161 murders, 100 threats, and 85 attacks have been recorded. The remaining incidents include kidnappings, disappearances, and various other forms of violence, posing a grave threat to Mexico's democracy.
This assault against the nation's democracy has resulted in candidates withdrawing from races due to personal threats, with estimates suggesting that up to four times as many candidates may have bowed out than officially reported. Additionally, voter turnout may suffer, with studies indicating a 1.3 per cent decrease per attack on a candidate.
The pervasive threat of violence, fueled by organised crime and systemic deficiencies, casts a shadow over the democratic process and raises fears of unprecedented bloodshed in what is expected to be the biggest elections in the nation's history.
