Analysis-South Korea's presidential election set to reshape policies for key U.S. ally

By Josh Smith

South Korean liberal candidate Lee Jae-myung is projected to win next week's snap presidential election, a result that could reorient a major U.S. ally on policies ranging from China to nuclear weapons and North Korea.

Former President Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative who was impeached and removed from office over December's short-lived martial law decree, had gone all-in on supporting Washington, taking a hard line on North Korea, and repairing ties with Japan.

Lee, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 election, has long taken a more sceptical view of the U.S. alliance, vowed to engage with North Korea, and was bitterly critical of Yoon's rapprochement with Japan.

He made waves on the campaign trail by saying South Korea should keep its distance from any China-Taiwan conflict, later insisting he is not pro-Beijing.

Tacking toward the centre in an effort to win moderates, however, Lee has taken to praising the U.S. alliance and said he would continue trilateral cooperation with Japan and the United States, seen in Washington as pivotal to countering China and North Korea.

"The Yoon administration claimed to uphold democratic values in foreign policy while pursuing authoritarian tactics domestically," Wi Sung-lac, a lawmaker who advises Lee on foreign policy, told Reuters.

"In contrast, if the Democratic Party wins, the incoming government will be prepared to genuinely defend democracy and lead a foreign policy grounded in those values, proven by its long history of struggle for democratic rights in Korea."

SCEPTICISM IN WASHINGTON

Some in Washington wonder if Lee's pivot on a range of issues will last, and how his views might clash with U.S. President Donald Trump, who has slapped South Korea with tariffs, pressed it to pay more for the 28,500 troops stationed there, and upped competition with China.

"Great scepticism remains that Lee would actually stray from his previous advocacy for conciliation with China and North Korea, nationalist antagonism toward Japan, and more independence in its alliance with the United States," said Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst now at Washington's Heritage Foundation.

While this pivot has expanded Lee's appeal, "it also raises concerns about future policy and governing consistency," Darcie Draudt-Vejares, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote in a report.

Much has changed in the three years since South Korea's last liberal president, Moon Jae-in, left office, after overseeing a trade and political clash with Tokyo over historical disputes related to Japan's 1910-1945 occupation of the Korean peninsula, and an ultimately failed attempt to broker lasting diplomatic deals between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

One Western diplomat, who asked not to be named, said China's assertiveness, doubts about U.S. commitments, and North Korea's new cooperation with Russia means Lee may be unlikely to return to some of his earlier stances.

Lee has vowed to cooperate with Japan on security, technology, culture and environment, but he criticised Yoon for giving too many concessions with little in return.

"While Lee may not actively walk back Yoon’s reconciliation with Japan... his party will react more strongly to any perceived slight from Japan over history issues," Klingner said.

Yoon and his conservatives raised the prospect of redeploying American nuclear weapons to the peninsula, or even developing their own arsenal to counter the North. But Lee has rejected those calls.

TRUMP RELATIONS

In an interview with TIME released on Thursday, Lee praised Trump's "outstanding skills" for negotiation. He also compared himself to the American president, saying both survived assassination attempts and seek to protect the interests of their countries.

"I believe the South Korea-U.S. alliance is the foundation of South Korea’s diplomacy," Lee said at a debate on Tuesday. Still, he listed U.S. protectionism as a challenge and said he would not "unnecessarily" antagonize China and Russia.

He is a savvy politician who will take a calculated approach to dealing with Trump, and given the lack of clarity on a number of Trump's policies on China and other areas, it is not certain that Lee will clash with the American president, said Moon Chung-in, a former foreign policy adviser to the previous liberal administration.

"But if President Trump pushes too many demands, unlike other leaders in South Korea, Lee may not accommodate them all, which could be a source of friction," Moon said.

North Korea is one area where Lee may see eye-to-eye with Trump. It may also be one of the toughest issues to tackle.

Lee says he will reopen hotlines with North Korea and seek to engage with Pyongyang to lower tensions.

However, Pyongyang has amassed a larger missile arsenal, forged a wide-ranging security pact with Russia, and taken the historic step of officially rejecting eventual unification with the South, labelling Seoul a main enemy.

"It will be very difficult for Lee to reopen the hotlines with North Korea, and the North will not respond to his call for dialogue," Moon said.