Analyst: Thailand-Cambodia clash alarming but unlikely to escalate
Renewed fighting between Thailand and Cambodia has raised concern among observers, with air strikes, casualties and mass evacuations reported along the disputed frontier between the two Asian neighbours.
However, for political analyst Antonio Contreras, a former professor who also writes a column for a prominent newspaper in the Philippines, the situation is “worrying” but unlikely to escalate into a full-scale war.
“Thailand’s reported air strikes along its disputed border with Cambodia sound alarming, and they are,” he said, noting that such confrontations between ASEAN neighbours are rare and increase the risk of miscalculation. He insisted, however, that “a full-scale regional war is still very unlikely.”
Contreras’ statement comes after Thailand confirmed on Monday that it had carried out air strikes on Cambodian positions after accusing Phnom Penh of breaching a ceasefire brokered earlier this year.
One Thai soldier was killed and eight others wounded, prompting the Air Force to deploy aircraft “to deter and reduce Cambodia's military capabilities,” according to a Thai army statement.
Cambodia rejected the accusations and said Thailand launched dawn attacks at two locations following “provocative actions.” Its defence ministry insisted Cambodian forces had “not responded,” even as three civilians were reported seriously wounded. Former leader Hun Sen called Thailand the “aggressors” and urged Cambodian troops to exercise restraint.
Contreras stressed that the clashes remain geographically limited. “The conflict is localized,” he said, explaining that the fighting is confined to long-contested border areas with a history of flare-ups. “There is no sign of nationwide mobilization from either side.”
He also pointed out limitations of both Thailand's and Cambodia’s militaries and economies.
“Neither military is built for prolonged interstate war,” he said. Both armies are primarily oriented toward internal security and border defence, making extended conflict “neither feasible nor desirable.”
“Economies, especially Thailand’s, can’t afford escalation,” he added, noting that tourism is a vital component of Thailand’s economy and that reports of “air strikes” alone can alarm visitors.
Regional and international actors are also likely to act to prevent escalation. Contreras noted incentives for the United States, China, and neighbouring governments to pressure both sides into dialogue. ASEAN Chair Anwar Ibrahim has already urged “maximum restraint.”
Contreras said urgent diplomatic intervention is needed, but the risk of a full-scale regional war remains low.
“This is concerning and needs quick diplomatic intervention, but a debilitating Thailand–Cambodia war that destabilizes the region is still highly unlikely. Economic pressure, ASEAN dynamics, and political reality all point toward de-escalation rather than war,” he said.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
