Bolivia Elections: Fragmentation, protests, and a weakening MAS
Speaking with Global South World, Tiziano Breda, Senior Analyst at ACLED, said Bolivia’s elections mark a turning point, with a fractured MAS and growing protests pushing the country toward deeper polarisation.
Breda emphasises that this internal struggle is not just about leadership but about control over the country’s political narrative. Morales seeks to reassert himself as the movement’s rightful leader, while Arce is trying to consolidate authority amid economic turmoil. This tug-of-war, Breda warns, risks deepening institutional paralysis and leaving Bolivia without a clear path to recovery.
A Weakened MAS
Once a dominant force, MAS now faces the consequences of its internal split, with loyalties divided between President Luis Arce and former leader Evo Morales. Morales, though barred from running, still managed to mobilise nearly 17% of voters toward casting null ballots, underscoring his continued influence but also the limits of his electoral base. The result was a weakened MAS and unexpected gains for alternative candidates, signalling a new phase in Bolivia’s volatile political cycle.
While the immediate outcome has reshuffled party alignments, Breda warns that Bolivia’s deeper challenges remain unresolved. The persistent polarisation between Arce’s government and Morales’ loyalists risks prolonging cycles of protest and road blockades, instruments that have long paralysed the economy and undermined trust in institutions. At the same time, the lack of a unifying political force raises concerns about governance, as fragmented opposition groups may struggle to present coherent alternatives. According to Breda, this fragile equilibrium could turn Bolivia’s upcoming months into a test of resilience for its democracy.
The economic protest factor
Beyond political rivalries, Breda further pointed out that Bolivia’s elections were heavily influenced by a wave of protests over economic crisis and shortages.
Breda told Global South World that since October 2023, ACLED recorded more than 500 protests linked to the lack of dollars, fuel, and rising food prices, a level of unrest rarely seen in the country’s recent history. “When there were protests about lack, they were almost non-existent, except briefly during the pandemic”, Breda explained. “This gives us a sense of how severe the current economic situation has become”, he added.
But the turmoil was compounded by pro-Evo Morales blockades, which often paralysed transport and trade for weeks. Rather than bolstering Morales’ cause, Breda argues these actions deepened the economic crisis and fueled frustration across the country. “The protests of his supporters actually aggravated shortages and made life harder for ordinary Bolivians. This increased rejection of MAS as a whole”, Breda said.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
