Brazil Roundup: Surge in organised crime, US tariff pressures, bird flu status cleared

Surge in organised crime

Violence is surging across Brazil’s northern and northeastern regions, with homicide rates in 2023 41.5% higher than the national average in the north. Six of the ten most violent cities were in Bahia, where mafia-style groups PCC and Comando Vermelho are expanding their reach. To combat this, the federal government has proposed a constitutional amendment to unify police strategies nationwide. A pilot program in Bahia, planned for December 2024, would integrate federal intelligence and academic research. However, Bahia’s state government rejected the aid, disputing the role of organised crime—despite clear evidence to the contrary. Brazil scored 8/10 in the 2023 Global Organised Crime Index for mafia-style activity, ranking just behind Colombia and Venezuela.

US tariff pressures

On July 9, the U.S. government announced a 7% tariff on imports from Brazil, Latin America's largest economy and the world’s top coffee producer. While Brazil ranks as the U.S.’s 50th-largest trading partner, key exports to the U.S. include crude oil, steel, pig iron, coffee, and food products. In return, the U.S. exports aircraft, petroleum, coal, and semiconductors to Brazil. Analyst Laleska Moda of Hedgepoint Global Markets warns the tariff could push up inflation, reducing the Fed’s flexibility for future interest rate cuts, especially since the U.S. is a net importer. She also noted that despite a slight rebound, the U.S. dollar index remains near a 3.5-year low, having dropped 10% in 2025.

Brazil cleared of bird flu

South Africa has officially lifted its ban on poultry imports from Brazil, effective July 4, 2025, after the bird flu outbreak was declared contained. The Department of Agriculture confirmed the move enhances food security while maintaining science-based safety standards. The ban was imposed after a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak was reported on May 15 in Montenegro, Brazil. Following WOAH guidelines, Brazil implemented containment measures, disinfected affected sites, and observed a 28-day waiting period, with freedom from the disease declared on June 18.

Brazil forms trade panel amid Trump tariff threat

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has announced the creation of an interministerial committee to coordinate trade countermeasures after former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports starting August 1. The committee, chaired by Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, aims to protect Brazil’s economy under the Economic Reciprocity Law. Its first meeting is scheduled for Tuesday with industry leaders present. Trump’s tariff threat, shared via Truth Social, accused Lula of leading a “witch hunt” against ex-president Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently facing coup-related charges. In response, Lula warned, “Brazil will not accept tutelage” and promised retaliation under national law if the tariff is enforced.