Cameroon’s October 12 election: Who’s running, what’s at stake, and why it matters

For others, however, the upcoming election is among the most consequential in years. Opposition camps are gaining momentum — and a rare sense of unity — in hopes of finally unseating Biya, who has ruled for nearly 43 years.

What is clear so far is that October 12 will be a litmus test for Cameroon’s fragile democracy: It could either free itself from the grip of an ageing regime or slip further into the familiar rule of the 92-year-old Biya.

Contenders and outcasts

This year’s election pits Biya against 11 candidates, drawn from a record 81 hopefuls. The Constitutional Court disqualified several bids, including that of Hilaire Marcaire Dzipan of the Progressive Movement (MP), whose initial approval by the election body was later revoked.

Another major exclusion was Maurice Kamto of the Movement for the Renaissance of Cameroon, widely regarded as Biya’s strongest challenger. Kamto, who came second in 2018 with 14% of the vote to Biya’s 71%, was barred from running.

The following candidates have been confirmed and validated for the October 12 vote:

• Paul Biya (Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement)
• Ateki Seta Caxton (Alliance Liberal Party)
• Bella Bouba Magari (National Union for Democracy and Progress)
• Jacques Bougha Hagbe (Cameroon National Citizen Movement)
• Issa Tchiroma Bakary (Cameroon National Salvation Front)
• Hiram Samuel Iyodi (Cameroonian Democrats Front)
• Pierre Kwemo (Union of Socialist Movements)
• Cabral Libii Li Ngue Ngue (Cameroon Party for National Reconciliation)
• Serge Espoir Matomba (United People for Social Renovation)
• Akere Tabeng Muna (Independent)
• Joshua Nambangi Osih (Social Democratic Front)
• Hermine Patricia Tomaino Epse Ndam Njoya (Cameroon Democratic Union)

Since the list’s release in July, the race has shifted. Akere and Seta have withdrawn to back Bouba, one of the leading opposition figures to have consolidated support. Another contender, Tchiroma, secured backing from the Manidem Party. 

Both Bouba and Tchiroma are now seen as the top opposition candidates.

Biya’s dominance

To grasp the scale of Biya’s dominance, one must look to Cameroon’s history.

Biya is only the country’s second president, succeeding Ahmadou Ahidjo, who led from independence in 1960 until resigning in 1982. Ahidjo’s decision to appoint Biya as his successor backfired when the new president later had him tried and sentenced to death — a penalty later commuted to life imprisonment.

Cameroon has never held a presidential election without Biya on the ballot. In 1984, he ran unopposed when Cameroon was still a one-party state. When multiparty elections were introduced in 1992, Biya won with 40% — his narrowest margin. His vote share has not fallen below 70% since.

Here’s how Biya won in all the elections he has participated in: 

• 1984 - 100% of votes
• 1992 - 39.98% of votes
• 1997 - 92.57% of votes
• 2004 - 70.92% of votes
• 2011 - 77.99% of votes
• 2018 - 71.28% of votes

However, these numbers aren’t to be taken at face value. Nearly all elections have been mired in allegations of vote-rigging. As the International Crisis Group noted, “Given the likely magnitude of the election irregularities, it is almost impossible to determine what percentage of the vote each candidate really won.”

Cameroonian journalist Tony Vinyoh said such allegations have deepened public mistrust in the process.

“People don't trust the process,” he told Global South World. “I’ve talked to some parents, and they don't even want to register their kids.”

Out of a population of 28.3 million, only 8.2 million are registered to vote. Turnout has steadily declined: from 80% in 2004 to 68% in 2011, and just 54% in 2018, according to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems.

What’s at stake

For many, the October vote is about more than leadership — it’s about ending a culture that stifles dissent, discourages meritocracy, and sustains political dynasties as enduring as Biya’s.

“Stability, in Cameroon’s current context, is a deeply misleading term,” Cameroonian journalist Amindeh Atabong wrote in his column for Global South World. “It masks the profound erosion of civil liberties, the stifling of political dissent, and the lack of political will to reform electoral norms in order to sustain one man’s grip on power.”

Cameroon’s population is young, but its leadership is ageing. As problems in education, infrastructure, and the economy deepen, public frustration grows.

“People are worried about the state of their roads, the standards of education. There are parents who are worried about feeding their kids and sending them to school. They are worried about the training they will get in university and whether the training will be useful,” he said.

Elections like that of October 12 give Cameroon the appearance of democracy, but many say the reality remains far removed from its promise.

“Cameroon holds regular elections. It maintains a multiparty system. It boasts a constitutional council and an independent electoral body. But these structures have been hollowed out, their purpose repurposed to preserve a singular political dynasty. There is no viable path to power that doesn’t first pass through the gate Biya has locked shut,” Atabong said. 

“Unless opposition leaders find a way to unify, unless citizens reclaim the democratic space stolen from them, Biya’s eighth term will not be his last.”

As Cameroonians prepare to cast their votes, the stakes extend far beyond the ballot box. The election has become a reckoning with decades of stagnation — a test of whether a new generation can reclaim the promise of democracy from the world’s oldest ruler, or whether the familiar machinery of power will once again tighten its hold.