China, US unlikely to be ready for Taiwan war by 2027
Despite warnings from senior United States (US) military officials, Beijing and Washington are unlikely to engage in a high-stakes confrontation over Taiwan within the next two years, according to a veteran defence journalist from the Philippines.
Citing analysts from the conservative US think tank the Heritage Foundation, Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Manny Mogato said both military and economic factors indicate a war over Taiwan by 2027 is improbable.
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping has set a 2027 deadline to modernise the country’s armed forces, with the aim of making them capable of invading Taiwan.
“2027 is just two years away. That’s why I don’t believe a war will break out by then — the US is not ready, and neither is China,” Mogato, a former Reuters correspondent, told Global South World.
Experts from the Heritage Foundation forecast that any such conflict might erupt around 2030.
Why the pushback? Mogato said the reason is straightforward: both countries may have sizeable militaries, but they are not yet fully prepared for a large-scale war.
China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is currently the largest in the world, with a fleet of more than 370 platforms, including warships and submarines. This is expected to grow to 395 ships this year and 435 by 2030.
However, China’s weakness lies in its aircraft carrier capability, a critical factor in naval dominance that effectively provides a mobile air force. The PLAN has just three carriers: the Soviet-era Liaoning, the domestically built Shandong, and the more advanced Fujian.
By comparison, the US Navy operates 11 aircraft carriers and aims to expand to 12, pending the commissioning of the John F. Kennedy in 2027. That figure is set to fall temporarily to 10 in 2026 when the USS Nimitz is retired.
In total, the US Navy has 296 battle-force ships, a number projected to slightly decrease to 294 by 2030. Nevertheless, the US military remains the largest in the world — a position China aims to overtake by 2049.
Another factor Mogato highlighted is China’s slowing economy.
While still the world’s second-largest economy, Beijing has struggled to maintain its previous rapid growth, posting slower GDP expansion in the second quarter amid looming US tariffs.
US President Donald Trump offered some temporary reprieve by signing an order on August 11, delaying the tariff hike for 90 days. The measures would impose a 30% duty on Chinese goods entering the US and 10% on American goods exported to China.
Despite these challenges, Mogato said Beijing remains determined to bring Taiwan under its control as part of its so-called “reunification” policy.
“Xi Jinping is really committed to taking back Taiwan to be part of China because they consider Taiwan as a renegade province,” Mogato said. “That’s the only territory remaining because Hong Kong was returned by the British, Macau was returned by Portugal, and Tibet was illegally annexed by China.”
“The only remaining territory outside mainland China is Taiwan. There was a plan to take back Taiwan by 2027. So, the US was expecting a war with China in 2027.”
Taiwan has been self-governed since 1949, following the Chinese Civil War between the Nationalist government and Mao Zedong’s communist forces.
Although the US maintains a policy of “strategic ambiguity” — not formally recognising Taiwan as independent but supplying it with defensive arms — tensions have escalated in recent years over Chinese military activities near the island and Washington’s commitments to its security.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
