Could Guinea ever return to civilian rule?

What happens next could determine whether democracy wins or military rule becomes more deeply established.

The proposed constitution extends the presidential term from five to seven years, allows two terms, and crucially removes a ban preventing junta members, including General Mamady Doumbouya, from standing for office.

Additionally, it introduces a new Senate, one-third of whose members the president would appoint.

The vote comes ahead of planned general and presidential elections in December 2025, which the referendum is meant to enable legally.

The stakes

In September 2021, Doumbouya seized power in a coup, which dissolved the constitution with a vow to return the country to civilian rule. He initially promised that no junta member would run in future elections. That promise is now in shambles.

Opposition leaders, including Cellou Dalein Diallo, are either under suspension, in exile, or stripped of political space, and are calling for a boycott of the referendum.

The media landscape is also experiencing the heat with severe restrictions. Private outlets have been shut, websites suspended, and campaign coverage tightly regulated.

The AFP, however, reports that some media restrictions have been eased ahead of the vote.

Critics argue these conditions support a process that looks democratic on paper but is deeply curtailed in practice

What September 21 means

If the draft passes, Doumbouya is almost certain to run in December. A “Yes” vote would mark a legal framework that elevates executive power, leverages a compliant legislature, and further limits opposition.

If the referendum fails or if turnout is very low, legitimacy instantly becomes the issue. The junta would face internal pressure and external scepticism.

Delay or reform of the election schedule might follow. Unrest, protest, or resistance which have been banned in the country since 2022 could grow.