Global policy trends: Japan and Africa, an underrated partnership - Opinion
Japan's relationship with Africa does not attract as much attention as the involvement of China, France or Turkiye. But its roots are deep and its significance is broad.
This opinion article represents the views of its author, not those of Global South World.
If ever there was a pairing demographically destined to succeed it would be Japan and Africa.
The former faces the existential challenge of a shrinking population and the menace of labour shortages; the latter an expanding population with increasing youth unemployment.
A single statistic sums up the disparity: the average age of an African is 19 years; while the average age of a Japanese citizen is 50.
Moreover, by 2050, according to World Population Prospects 2024, one in every four humans walking our planet will be an African.
Individual crises add up to a collective solution. This is exactly what such words of wisdom as “ubuntu” (South Africa), “harambe” (East Africa), and “medemer” (Ethiopia) are all about.
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba probably had this in mind when he said on the eve of TICAD 9 that “I would like to discuss how to connect Africa's human and material resources to Japan's growth and global prosperity, in a way that benefits both Japan and Africa.”
Partnerships
In a nutshell, the emphasis of TICAD 9 was on trade with and investment in Africa - partnerships - in contrast with development agenda which dominated TICAD’s early years. Japan is eager to encourage its private companies to take some risk to catch up with their counterparts from the other parts of the world and contribute a greater share to the almost $100 billion invested in Africa annually.
While, the number of African offices of Japanese companies has increased from 562 in 2011 to 948 in 2023, this number can be misleading. The fact is that Japan’s share of FDI in Africa in 2023 was far smaller not only than that of India but even Singapore. In the same period, the Netherlands, France, the US, the UK, and China remained the top five countries. And Japan’s exports to Africa in 2024 stood only at $8.5 billion, compared with China’s $178 billion
The reasons for Japan’s low level of involvement in Africa’s economy are complex. But they also include, first, the high risk-averseness of Japanese companies. There is a widespread perception of political instability in Africa (with some justification). As it was clearly stated in the Yokohama Declaration released at the end of TICAD 9: “[political] instability undermines economic prospects, negatively impacts human development and depletes natural, physical and financial resources, increases perceived risks, and places a heavier burden on public finances.” In other words, Africa should put its house in order. However, we should not entertain the idea that Africa become caught in a Catch-22 whereby the condition for investment is stability, when we already know the condition for stability is investment.
People to people
There is also another less appreciated factor that hinders Japan’s substantive economic presence in Africa: the low level of people-to-people interactions between Africans and the Japanese. Take, for instance, the foreign residents in Japan. As of December 2024, they numbered 3.8 million, according to data from Japan’s Immigration Services Agency. Out of this, only 23,000 were from the entire continent of Africa. With even fewer Japanese residing in Africa, there is virtually no opportunity for cross-cultural exchanges. Mutual ignorance tends to perpetuate and reinforce itself.
For now, Japan is gradually realizing that it cannot afford to lock itself out of the abundant natural resources and potentially huge African market: Africa’s economy has grown substantially in the decades since TICAD was initiated in 1993. According to the World Bank, sub-Saharan African GDP was approximately $1500 in 2024, which is about 2.3 times higher than then. In addition, the UN has predicted that the region’s economy will grow by about 4 % in 2025, surpassing the global economic growth rate projected to be only 2.8%. And that’s not to consider the supply chain importance of the precious and plentiful natural resources on the continent.
Japan was one of the first countries to recognise the value of a mutually-developed relationship with Africa at the end of the Cold War. Since then, many other nations from China, through Turkiye and the Gulf States as well as the European Union have been redoubling their engagements. But Japan, geographically, historically and economically is uniquely positioned to take a partnership role. The disengagement of the US under Trump from the globalised economy makes such a move all the more urgent and critical from the point of view of Japan’s policymakers.
- The author is a visiting professor at the Institute of Advanced Research and Education at Doshisha University, Kyoto, Japan.
