Global South Politics: In Thailand, a dynasty in distress but a democracy still in doubt

Paetongtarn, daughter of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra and the latest face of the family that has dominated Thai politics for more than two decades, is facing trial for alleged ethics violations over a phone call with Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen. 

The case is the second of three looming rulings against the Shinawatras, raising speculation that the family’s once-formidable influence may be entering its final chapter.

Yet analysts warned that Paetongtarn’s removal would not end Thailand’s turmoil, as the roots of the political instability lie in a fragile constitution and weak institutions, not just in one leader or family.

“No matter if Paetongtarn survives or not, I would say that [given] the current situation, the government cannot be in power for long,” political science lecturer Purawich Watanasukh told Global South World.

“Friday is quite significant for Shinawatra, not just Paetongtarn. To me, Paetongtarn is not the key to the party, to the family — she is just a proxy to Thaksin,” he added. “If she is dismissed, that would mean [a lot] to the Shinawatra family’s future in politics for sure.” 

Paetongtarn, the youngest Thai premier, has been suspended since July 1. Her public support has fallen sharply, with trust ratings sinking to 9.2% in June from 30.9% in March. Her ruling Pheu Thai party has also seen its ratings collapse, dropping to 11.5% from 28.05%.

By contrast, the military remains the country’s most trusted institution, with more than 75% of the public expressing strong confidence in it, which Watanasukh said reflects both the armed forces’ enduring dominance and the perceived incompetence of civilian governments.

Even if Paetongtarn survives one of her family’s most serious political tests, Watanasukh said she would return from suspension weakened, facing not only unresolved border disputes with Cambodia but also impending opposition complaints.

“If she survives, I would say that she intends to complete the term for sure — but it's not that easy,” the analyst said. 

But the Shinawatras’ decline does not necessarily mean Thailand’s instability will end. Watanasukh argued that the roots of crisis lie in a political system designed to perpetuate fragmentation and a constitution shaped by coups and chronic instability.

“Even when the new election is called. I don't think that it will produce a strong government because the constitution is purposely designed to create a multi-party system and an unstable government where you have a fragmented party system,” he said, citing the roots of Thailand’s current constitution to the 2014 coup.

Thailand has had 31 prime ministers and at least 12 successful coups since it transitioned to a constitutional monarchy in 1932. Since 2022 alone, the country has cycled through seven prime ministers, including interims, some of whom served for only days.

“I can foresee that it will be a short-term government (next administration) to pave the way for the new election. They will be in power for months, not a year. So, it is likely to be another transitional period.”

Decades away from democratisation

Beyond the Shinawatras, Watanasukh believes Thailand remains far from genuine democracy. 

The military still wields considerable influence, as shown in the handling of border disputes with Cambodia, while repeated coups have been normalised to the point that many Thais view them as part of the political process.

“Democracy is not the only game in town in Thailand,” Watanasukh said. “In any other democratic country, you should view these as not normal things, but in Thailand, these have been made to appear normal.” 

Worse, this instability has left younger generations increasingly disillusioned. Repeated overthrows and short-lived governments have eroded the belief that long-term solutions are possible.

“People are made to believe that these are normal things in Thailand, and it affects the long-term development of the country,” Watanasukh said. “Furthermore, it gets rid of the hope — people are no longer hopeful for the country's future.”

After more than 20 years in which the Shinawatras have loomed over Thai politics, steadying the system would require rebalancing civil-military relations and amending the coup-era constitution. 

But such a change, Watanasukh warned, will not come quickly.

“There are still some people who are still hopeful that there will be change, and it’s just taking time,” he said. “It might take decades from my point of view to democratize Thailand, but I'm not sure how long it will take.”