Global South Politics: Who wins Guinea-Bissau's most competitive and tense elections? - Video
At first glance, it appears there is a clear winner in the upcoming Guinea-Bissau presidential elections, but the reality on the ground tells a different story.
For many, the incumbent president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, passes as the frontrunner and the people's favourite to win a second term. A feat no president in the last three decades has achieved.
However, 47-year-old Fernando Dias also seems to be in a comfortable lead.
After being disqualified from standing as a candidate, opposition leader Domingos Simões Pereira has thrown his weight and support behind the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), a party headed by political newcomer Fernando Dias.
Expectations of the citizenry
During a conversation with Abigail Johnson Boakye, a journalist with Global South World, Samba M. Baldé, a Bissau-Guinean journalist, shared that despite the hype surrounding the upcoming elections, electorates seem to be less engaged, as they are tired of slogans and manifestos and want real solutions.
"Engagement exists, but it's uneven because voters react to something that has certain benefits than to only promises because for voters, when candidates fail to translate their proposals into real impact or how they can really impact society, public interest quickly drops. ...But people are, for example, no longer satisfied with slogans. They want clear plans and measurable results in Guinea-Bissau," Samba said.
On November 23, 860,000 voters head to the polls to decide whether their country can finally break free from decades of political turbulence.
Who is Fernando Dias?
Although new to the political spotlight, Dias is not entirely new to public life. His journey reflects a careful mix of academic training, political apprenticeship and a recent surge in national prominence.
He is a trained lawyer, holding both a Bachelor's degree in Law and a postgraduate qualification in Criminal Law from the Bissau Faculty of Law.
Before emerging as a presidential contender, he had built a steady career within state institutions, serving as the first Vice-President of the National People’s Assembly during the 11th legislature.
His roots in party politics run deeper than his “newcomer” label suggests.
He once served as Secretary-General of the youth wing of the Party for Social Renewal (PRS), eventually becoming its interim leader following a leadership vacancy. In June 2024, he was elected as president of the PRS.
He promises security for the people and desires to ensure the military does not interfere in the West African country's politics again.
"Our mission is clear: free Guinea-Bissau from the shackles of dictatorship and return power to the people. With faith, unity and courage, we will win the polls and build a new time for our nation," he wrote on his Facebook wall.
Background
Guinea-Bissau’s presidential and legislative races come at a moment when institutions are strained, and trust is fragile.
Umaro Sissoco Embaló's bid is seen as controversial because he has strategically reshaped the political arena through sudden dismissals and the appointment of a new prime minister ahead of the vote.
Heavyweight Domingos Simões Pereira and the historic PAIGC party-led coalition, PAI-Terra Ranka, were barred from contesting after the Supreme Court ruled their paperwork incomplete in October. This marks the first time the PAIGC party will be absent on a ballot paper.
Coups d'états, dissolved parliaments, and stalled reforms have marked Guinea-Bissau’s history. Embaló dissolved the National Assembly in December 2023, claiming an attempted coup, and left the country with no operational parliament for nearly two years.
Although his tenure ended in February 2025, Embaló stayed in the seat of power.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
