Guinea-Bissau enters election season against a backdrop of coup plots and contested legitimacy: summary

What we know

• President Umaro Sissoco Embaló is seeking re-election in Guinea-Bissau’s November 23 presidential and legislative elections, aiming to become the first incumbent in 30 years to win a second term.
• His tenure has been marked by instability, including several alleged coup attempts. Gunfire was reported during a 2022 attempt, and another alleged attempt occurred in December 2023.
• In October 2025, the army announced yet another coup plot involving senior officers, including the director of a military training school, Brigadier General Dahaba Nawalna, Commanders Domingos Nhanke and Mario Midana, who were arrested in Bissau.
• Guinea-Bissau’s armed forces said they disrupted an effort “to subvert the constitutional order” ahead of the election campaign, warning that the plot threatened peace, stability and foreign investment.
• Embaló’s main challenger, former Prime Minister Domingos Simões Pereira, has been barred from running, strengthening the incumbent’s electoral prospects.
• Embaló has faced ongoing questions about his legitimacy. Opponents argue he never won the 2019 race and say he has overstayed his constitutional mandate. The opposition claims his term ended in February, while the Supreme Court says it ends September 4.
• He dissolved parliament after clashes in 2023, and the country has been without a functioning legislature since.
• Guinea-Bissau remains a key transit hub for cocaine trafficking. In September 2024, authorities seized 2.63 tons of cocaine from a plane arriving from Venezuela.
• The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime reported in August that the country’s cocaine trade “is booming once again” and may be more profitable than ever.
• Embaló cites economic progress, pointing to 5.1% projected GDP growth, mineral potential, and a Chevron deal to explore offshore oil blocks.
• Guinea-Bissau continues to experience political volatility despite efforts since 2014 to consolidate the rule of law.

What they said

“This sad episode, which involves some general and senior officers of our Armed Forces, jeopardises the peace and stability so desired for socio-economic development and the attraction of foreign investment,” the armed forces said in a statement after announcing the latest coup plot. Deputy chief of staff General Mamadu Ture Kuruma told journalists: “This is indeed a new attempt to subvert the constitutional order, on the eve of the start of the election campaign for the legislative and presidential elections on November 23.”