Guinea eyes December 28 polls—will civilian rule return?

A presidential decree, broadcast on state-run RTG, confirmed the date after the Supreme Court upheld the results of a September 21 constitutional referendum.

Official figures showed 92% turnout with 89% approval, though opposition groups and civil society organisations disputed the numbers, citing empty polling stations and alleged fraud.

The new constitution extends presidential terms from five to seven years, permits one re-election, creates a Senate with presidential appointees, and establishes a special court to try senior officials. It also allows independent candidates to contest for the first time, but crucially removes earlier restrictions barring junta members from running.

Colonel Mamady Doumbouya, who seized power in 2021 by ousting then-president Alpha Condé, has not declared whether he will run. Analysts note, however, that the timing and content of the constitutional changes suggest he may seek to remain in power.

The country holds the world’s largest bauxite reserves and vast iron ore deposits at Simandou, making political stability vital for global supply chains. Multinational mining companies, including Rio Tinto and China’s Chinalco, have major stakes in the sector.

The outcome will also test the credibility of West Africa’s response to military takeovers. ECOWAS has pressured juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to restore civilian rule, and its stance on Guinea’s vote may set a precedent.

For Guineans, hopes for stability are tempered by scepticism after years of authoritarian rule and unfulfilled promises. A credible, transparent election could mark a turning point; a disputed one risks cementing military power under a democratic facade.

Post-coup paths in Africa: recent returns to civilian rule and the juntas that remain

Several African states have transitioned, unevenly, between military and civilian rule in recent years. Where some transitions yielded elections and a nominal return to civilian government, others remain firmly under junta control. The pattern matters for regional stability, investment and international policy toward the continent.

Key recent returns to civilian rule

• The Gambia (2017 - present): ECOWAS military pressure and diplomacy forced longtime ruler Yahya Jammeh from power and enabled Adama Barrow’s democratic presidency, a case often cited as a successful regional restoration of civilian rule. ECOWAS troops and sustained international engagement helped stabilise the transition.
• Chad (2024 transition - contested): After the 2021 power shift and a period of junta rule under Mahamat Idriss Déby, Chad held elections and inaugurated a president in 2024. Observers describe the process as disputed and partial. Formal civilian institutions were restored, but the military’s influence remains strong, and the political environment is constrained.
• Gabon (post-coup ballots with limits): Gabon’s 2023 coup led to elections and legislative votes in 2024/25 under junta oversight. These ballots illustrate a trend in which some juntas organise polls to claim legitimacy, while retaining levers of control.

States still effectively under military rule

• Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger (Sahel juntas): Since successive coups from 2020–23, these countries remain governed by juntas that have expelled or reduced Western military footprints and formed an alternative security axis (the Alliance of Sahel States). Their transitions back to civilian rule have been repeatedly delayed.
• Guinea: After a 2021 coup, the junta delayed promised transfers. A new constitution and a December 2025 presidential vote have been scheduled, but reforms removing restrictions on junta participation have fuelled concerns that the process may entrench military power rather than restore independent civilian rule.
• Sudan: The 2021 coup and the subsequent armed rivalry between the Sudanese army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have left the country effectively under military control, with no credible path to civilian governance amid ongoing conflict and humanitarian collapse.

Recent years show no single path from coup to stable democracy. For a successful democracy to operate smoothly, it requires credible, inclusive elections, institutional checks on armed actors and sustained regional and international support. Where those elements are absent, elections or constitutional changes often become mechanisms for legitimising extended military influence rather than restoring accountable civilian governance.