How India-US trade talks unravelled

By Manoj Kumar

U.S. President Donald Trump last Wednesday announced 25% tariffs on Indian imports from August 7 and threatened more penalties over New Delhi's purchases of Russian oil.

Below is a timeline of how India, once seen as the frontrunner for a U.S. deal, ended up facing steep tariffs after Trump escalated tensions, and called it a "dead economy."

February Modi visits Washington

* Indian Prime Minister Narendra agrees to work toward a limited trade deal by fall 2025 with the United States and expand the bilateral trade deal to $500 billion by 2030. He also pledged to boost energy purchases from the U.S.

March

Bilateral talks gain momentum

* Trade Minister Piyush Goyal visits Washington; meetsCommerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade RepresentativeJamisen Greer. Later in March, U.S. officials visit Delhi fortalks. * India says negotiations are progressing well. * USTR annual report flags India's high tariffs,non-tariff barriers, data laws, and patent issues.AprilBreakthrough signs emerge

* During Vice President J.D. Vance’s visit, both sidesfinalise the terms of reference for bilateral talks. * Indian officials say a deal could be signed before theJuly 9 deadline.May

Further rounds of talks

* Goyal travels to Washington with lead negotiator RajeshAgrawal for trade talks. India expects a favourable outcome isnear.June

Mixed signals

* U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on June 3 says the U.S. and India are making progress and a deal could be finalised soon.

* Trump says a "big" trade deal with India is coming soon.

* Indian officials tell Reuters that trade talks have hit aroadblock over disagreements on import duties largely over farmgoods, dashing hopes of a deal ahead of July 9. * At a rally in the eastern Indian state of Odisha on June20, Modi says he declined Trump's invitation to Washington.JULY

Hardening of stance

* Delegation returns to New Delhi without a breakthrough. * Trade Minister Piyush Goyal says on July 4 that India willnot do trade deals to meet deadlines and national interest willbe "supreme." * Indian trade delegation travels to Washington again inmid-July for the fifth round of talks, aiming to break thedeadlock. * Modi responds in Parliament about ceasefire with Pakistan:"No world leader asked us to stop the operation." * No high-level outreach from Indian leadership. * On July 31, Trump imposes 25% tariffs on Indian imports,warns of further penalties for countries buying Russian oil.