IMF downgrades sub-Saharan Africa's 2024 economic outlook

The IMF attributed the downgrade primarily to weaker-than-expected growth in Nigeria, the region's largest economy. 

"The forecast for growth in sub-Saharan Africa is revised downward, mainly as a result of a 0.2 percentage point downward revision to the growth outlook in Nigeria amid weaker-than-expected activity in the first quarter of this year," the report stated.

Nigeria, a leading economy in Africa due to its large population, vast oil reserves, and diverse economic sectors, experienced a 2.98 percent growth in real terms in the first quarter of 2024. This was a decline from the 3.46 percent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2023, as reported by Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics.

Despite this revision, the IMF noted that economic activity in the region has shown resilience through early 2024, supported by robust private consumption in key economies. "Economic activity has shown resilience through early 2024, supported by robust private consumption in key economies,” said Jean-Marc Natal, Deputy Chief of the World Economic Studies Division in the Research Department of the IMF.

Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the Economic Counselor and Director, Research Department further noted that, “Sub-Saharan Africa, the growth projections are for 2024, are revised downward a little bit to 3.7 percent, that's a negative 0.1 percentage point revision, and are unchanged for 2025 at 4.1 percent.  And the broad context here is that as we see inflation increasingly in the rearview mirror and we expect to see inflation in the rearview mirror.  There is going to be an easing of global monetary conditions and financial conditions, and that is going to benefit also the region.  But let me ask Jean-Marc to come in and provide more details.” 

Globally, the IMF projected steady growth of 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025, aligning with its earlier forecast from April this year.