Inaction on emissions could cut developing Asia's GDP by 17% by 2070, ADB says

Developing Asia faces a potential 17% loss in its collective gross domestic product (GDP) by 2070 if high emissions persist, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said on Thursday, underscoring the urgency for stronger and more ambitious climate action.

While mitigation efforts have gained momentum, they remain insufficient to meet global targets, the ADB said in its inaugural climate report.

The ADB counts 46 Asia-Pacific countries as developing Asia, stretching from Georgia to Samoa and excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand.

Current climate policies would result in global warming by around 3 degrees Celsius (37.4F) within this century, the ADB said, twice the cap of 1.5C warming agreed by governments nearly a decade ago to prevent a cascade of dangerous consequences.

"Climate change has supercharged the devastation from tropical storms, heat waves, and floods in the region, contributing to unprecedented economic challenges and human suffering," ADB President Masatsugu Asakawa said.

Despite significant strides in reducing emissions intensity, and a 50% decrease across developing Asia since 2000, the region still produces nearly half of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Rapid production, rising energy demand and increased domestic consumption fuelled the emissions rise over the past two decades, the ADB said, with China accounting for two-thirds of the increase. South Asia and Southeast Asia contributed 19.3% and 15.4%, respectively.

The energy sector is the region's largest emitter, responsible for 77.6% of total emissions, driven by a heavy reliance on fossil fuels.

Left unchecked, these trends place developing Asia at the centre of the climate crisis, both in terms of impacts from global warming and solutions, the ADB said.

"The window to stay within the 1.5C target of the Paris Agreement is rapidly closing," ADB said.

It urged countries to come up with more ambitious and large-scale mitigation action plans, accelerate the transition to net zero emissions and scale up investments in advanced climate technologies and nature-based solutions.

Up to 300 million people in the region could be threatened by coastal inundation, and trillions of dollars of coastal assets could be damaged annually by 2070 if the climate crisis continues to accelerate, the Manila-based lender said.

"Urgent, well-coordinated climate action that addresses these impacts is needed before it is too late," Asakawa said.