Official figures released by the Zambia Statistics Agency show GDP growth climbed to 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 4.5% in the previous quarter. While services, especially information and communication, powered short-term gains, the real story is what’s coming next.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions research firm, is projecting growth of 5.4% in 2025 and a dramatic jump to 7.4% in 2026, easily outpacing many of Zambia’s regional peers.
Inflation, which peaked at 16.8% in February, has eased to 12.3% by September, boosting household purchasing power.
Meanwhile, agriculture continues to recover strongly and hydroelectric production is improving the electricity supply, a long-standing pain point for businesses. But the single most important driver is copper, Zambia’s flagship export. Major mine expansions and foreign-backed investments are expected to push copper production up 10% next year, compared to a 6% rise this year.
“With copper prices climbing and production ramping up, Zambia is well positioned to ride a powerful commodity wave,” BMI analysts noted.
BMI forecasts a 150 basis point cut to the policy rate, down to 13% by year-end, as inflation stabilises within the 6 - 8% target range.
Cheaper credit would encourage household consumption and enable private sector investment, helping spread the benefits of growth beyond the mining belt.
