Inside Zambia’s surprising economic comeback story
Zambia’s economy is staging an unexpected comeback, driven by falling inflation, increased copper output, and an investment boom that could propel growth to its fastest pace in over a decade.
Official figures released by the Zambia Statistics Agency show GDP growth climbed to 5.2% year-on-year in Q2 2025, up from 4.5% in the previous quarter. While services, especially information and communication, powered short-term gains, the real story is what’s coming next.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions research firm, is projecting growth of 5.4% in 2025 and a dramatic jump to 7.4% in 2026, easily outpacing many of Zambia’s regional peers.
Inflation, which peaked at 16.8% in February, has eased to 12.3% by September, boosting household purchasing power.
Meanwhile, agriculture continues to recover strongly and hydroelectric production is improving the electricity supply, a long-standing pain point for businesses. But the single most important driver is copper, Zambia’s flagship export. Major mine expansions and foreign-backed investments are expected to push copper production up 10% next year, compared to a 6% rise this year.
“With copper prices climbing and production ramping up, Zambia is well positioned to ride a powerful commodity wave,” BMI analysts noted.
BMI forecasts a 150 basis point cut to the policy rate, down to 13% by year-end, as inflation stabilises within the 6 - 8% target range.
Cheaper credit would encourage household consumption and enable private sector investment, helping spread the benefits of growth beyond the mining belt.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
