Killing of terrorist group leaders: Does it affect their operations?

The Iranian Quds Force remains active despite the loss of Soleimani, likewise the Afghan Taliban despite the death of Mansour and Al Qaeda with the death of Bin Ladin.

Research suggests that decapitating terrorist leaders may reduce attack success rates and frequency but not severity. Some studies even suggest that eliminating leaders has little impact on attack rates or organizational collapse and can provoke resentment, and incite further terrorist attacks in revenge.

Al Qaeda

Al Qaeda, a militant Islamist organization founded in the late 1980s, has been a global threat responsible for numerous attacks, targeting the United States. Its affiliates include the Islamic State and Al-Shabaab, targeting East Africa.

After the killing of its leader Zarqawi in 2006, the group grew more powerful. On September 11, 2001, it was responsible for the infamous 9/11 attack in the United States that killed nearly 3,000 people, and injured 6,000 others.

The U.S. targeted and killed nine of its leaders from 2006 to 2022 including its founder Osama Bin Laden in 2011. After Bin Laden’s death, its members vowed revenge for his death.

Despite the death of Bin Laden, Al Qaeda remains a global entity dedicated to violent jihad, with its organizational structure limiting the impact of his removal on affiliates. As of 2022, it continued to pose a threat, though the group lost its most charismatic and effective communicator.

While Bin Laden may have actively served as the group’s leader, his actual level of command and control within al-Qaeda's organizational structure was limited. Consequently, eliminating Bin Laden had minimal influence on al-Qaeda and its associated groups.

ISIS

ISIS, also known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, is considered one of the most ruthless and violent terrorist organizations globally.

In October 2019, the United States confirmed the death of the founder and leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, following a U.S. counterterrorism operation. Barely four days after, al-Qurayshi was named the new leader of ISIS.

The group is accountable for approximately 6,863 terrorist attacks from April 7, 2013, which is the beginning of al-Baghdadi’s leadership to December 31, 2019. Al-Baghdadi’s leadership of nearly 7 years claimed 43% of the ISIS terrorist attacks, but in the initial four months of al-Qurayshi’s leadership, ISIS had already claimed 16% of the attacks.

Under al-Baghdadi, 10% of ISIS attacks were suicide bombings, but within the first two months of al-Qurayshi’s leadership, this percentage dropped to 1.6%.

The average number of casualties per ISIS terrorist attack was 11.2 under al-Baghdadi, contrasting with 4.1 under al-Qurayshi. Throughout al-Baghdadi’s leadership, ISIS conducted a terrorist attack almost every day of his 2,393 days in charge, averaging 0.27 days between attacks. Under al-Qurayshi’s leadership, this average increased to 0.85 days, indicating a more consistent gap of nearly one day between attacks.

Boko Haram

Established in 2002 in northeast Nigeria, Boko Haram initially aimed to eliminate corruption and perceived injustice caused by Western influences, advocating for Islamic law. However, over time, its focus shifted to avenging the death of its founder, Muhammed Yusuf, who was killed in a military crackdown by Nigeria's Special Forces.

Nigeria ranks as the world's fifth-highest in armed conflict-related deaths, with over 35,000 deaths since Boko Haram's militarization in 2009. The group is also responsible for thousands of deaths in Cameroon, Chad, and Niger.

Despite reports of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau. The group's reign of terror, now spanning five years, has been marked by escalating violence, surpassing previous death tolls.

In September 2014, international media Reuters reported that Nigeria's Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, who has been killed at least three times returns and appears in the group's numerous jihadist videos each time.

Rights groups describe the violence he fuels as killing more people than at any time under past leadership during the group’s five-year-old reign.

Like bureaucracies, numerous terrorist organizations exhibit a hierarchical structure, authority from the top, maintaining administrative staff, adhering to standard operating procedures, and managing distinct branches and infrastructure. Consequently, while targeted killing could yield short-term results, its impact might diminish over time.