Malawi’s next president faces harsh economic reckoning, analyst warns
As Malawians head to the polls on September 16, the real challenge may not be who wins, but how the next government tackles an economy on the brink.
According to Thokozani Saulosi, an economic analyst, whichever party forms the next administration will have little room to delay painful corrective measures.
Saulosi told Global South World that fuel price adjustments have been postponed because of the elections, but once the votes are counted, whoever takes office will have no choice but to face these realities.
He pointed to urgent steps highlighted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including currency realignment and fiscal consolidation, as unavoidable if Malawi hopes to stabilise its finances and resume support from international lenders.
But such measures will come at a cost. “The immediate outcome is likely to be an economic downturn characterised by job losses, elevated inflation, and heightened risks to food security,” Saulosi warned. "However, if these measures are pursued consistently and with discipline, the economy is expected to stabilise and gradually recover."
Campaigns so far have focused heavily on subsidies, handouts, and grand infrastructure promises. Saulosi believes this approach sidesteps the real debate. “What stands out is the persistent emphasis on expenditure, with very little attention given to revenue generation. This imbalance raises the likelihood of worsening public debt,” he explained.
In his view, much will depend on how the next president manages both economic pressures and political expectations. “The difference will not be whether these measures are implemented, they will have to but how each party chooses to cushion the population from the impact,” he said.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) ended Malawi’s $175 million Extended Credit Facility in May 2025 after only $35 million was disbursed, citing a lack of progress on reforms. Meanwhile, inflation, which averaged 30.7% in 2024, remains one of the highest in Africa, with food inflation hovering above 30%, according to the World Bank.
While Saulosi acknowledged the widespread frustration with the rising cost of living, especially in urban areas, he stressed that rural voters remain fixated on affordable farm inputs and food security. This, he argued, has narrowed the scope of debate.
Saulosi believes the solution lies in changing how the government spends its money. “A strategic reallocation of government spending, from recurrent expenditures toward investment-oriented activities with a strong revenue-generating focus, could accelerate this process. Under such an approach, signs of recovery could emerge within the first two years, paving the way for sustained economic growth thereafter.”
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
