Poland 2025 presidential elections: First round reflects deep regional divides

The first round of Poland’s 2025 presidential election has set the stage for a dramatic runoff, which reveals a sharply divided political landscape between east and west, cities and countryside.

Trzaskowski leads, Nawrocki close behind

Rafał Trzaskowski, backed by the Civic Platform (PO), came out on top with 31.36% of the vote. His support was strongest in western Poland and major urban centres, including Warsaw, Poznań, and Wrocław. Trzaskowski’s campaign focused on European integration, democratic reforms, and progressive social policies, resonating with urban professionals and younger voters.

Hot on his heels is Karol Nawrocki, the conservative historian and head of the Institute of National Remembrance, who captured 29.54%. Nawrocki dominated the eastern and rural regions of the country with a campaign grounded in traditional values, national identity, and a sceptical stance toward EU interference. His strong performance among older and rural voters confirms a persistent conservative base.

Third-party disruption

In third place, Sławomir Mentzen, representing the right-libertarian Confederation party, secured 14.81% of the vote. Known for his anti-tax and anti-establishment rhetoric, Mentzen’s campaign attracted disaffected youth and entrepreneurs, particularly online. His performance positions him as a possible kingmaker in the second round.

Grzegorz Braun, another far-right figure, earned 6.34%, while Szymon Hołownia, Adrian Zandberg, and Magdalena Biejat—representing centrist and leftist positions—rounded out the field with between 4% and 5% each.

Interestingly, the Polish diaspora painted a different electoral picture. Trzaskowski led the overseas vote with 36.82%, followed by Nawrocki at 19.46%. Mentzen and Braun also performed better abroad than many expected, indicating a complex identity dynamic among Poles living in Western democracies.