Romania's far right expected to make gains in parliamentary election

By Luiza Ilie

Romanians were voting in a parliamentary election on Sunday, in which the far right is expected to gain from uncertainty over whether the shock result in a presidential election will stand.

Sunday's vote is the second of three consecutive ballots for both a new parliament and a new president, after the first round of the presidential election on Nov. 24 saw an independent far-right candidate emerge from relative obscurity to become the front-runner.

His unexpected win ushered in support for ultranationalist, hard-right parties, some with overt pro-Russian sympathies, which could upend Romania's pro-Western orientation and undermine backing for Ukraine, political analysts said.

After a campaign dominated by voters' concerns over budget problems and the cost of living, the election pits the far-right contenders against pro-European mainstream parties which have angered their voters with infighting and corruption allegations.

Far-right parties have also used Romania's championing of Ukraine to stoke fears the war could spill over the border unless the country halts its support, as well as resentment over alleged preferential treatment for refugees from Ukraine.

"I am not voting for any party which has been in parliament before, it is an elimination vote," said Marian Gheorghe, a cab driver. "I have children and I am tired of telling them 'No' because I can't afford what they need."

"Where is the justice, why are Romanian children less than Ukrainian children?"

Romania has been a strong ally to neighbouring Ukraine, helping export millions of tons of grain, training its fighter pilots and donating a Patriot air defence battery.

About 3.1 million Romanians, or 17.6% of registered voters, had voted by 1000 GMT, data showed. Voting will end at 1900 GMT with exit polls to follow immediately. Preliminary results are expected later in the evening.

DISTRUST

Days after far-right politician Calin Georgescu won the most votes in the first round of the presidential election, an opinion poll this week showed the hard-right Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) had a narrow lead over the governing Social Democrats.

Two far-right splinter parties are also seen entering parliament, potentially giving ultranationalists a third of seats in the legislative.

Georgescu's unexpected success last Sunday raised concerns over interference in the campaign, prompted a vote recount and led to a defeated candidate asking the country's top court to rerun the first round of voting.

The confusion means the parliamentary election is going ahead, with voters uncertain whether the outcome of the presidential first round vote will stand.

They also do not know whether the presidential run-off - scheduled for Dec. 8 between Georgescu and centrist Elena Lasconi - will proceed or be held at a later date, with the court expected to decide on Monday.

"No decision made during this crucial period should limit the right of Romanians to vote freely or further put at risk the credibility of the election process," U.S. ambassador Kathleen Kavalec said in a statement on Saturday.

Georgescu, 62, has been critical of NATO and Romania's stance on Ukraine, and has said Bucharest should engage with Russia, not challenge it. Opinion polls had not predicted his success.

Political analysts say far-right parties are likely to gain from the uncertainty.

"The net beneficiaries ... are Georgescu and the anti-establishment camp which is now getting additional ammunition: here is how state institutions work, how discretionary they are," said Sergiu Miscoiu, a political science professor at Babes-Bolyai University.

An AtlasIntel opinion poll conducted from Nov. 26-28 put the hard-right AUR at 22.4%, with Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu's Social Democrats at 21.4%, down 10 percentage points over two weeks, and Lasconi's Save Romania Union at 17.5%. The poll did not factor in the recount.

The next parliament and government will face a tough task in trying to cut the EU's highest budget deficit at 8% of economic output and uphold defence spending goals when Donald Trump's U.S. presidency starts.

Romania has the EU's biggest share of the population at risk of poverty, and swathes of the country need investment.

"We have an unevenly developed country and the biggest frustrations accumulate in these periphery areas which will fall prey to candidates who know how to address them," said anthropologist Bogdan Iancu.