Serbia Country Profile
General Information
Population
Total: 6,652,212
Male: 3,242,751
Female: 3,409,461
Ethnic groups
Serb 83.3%
Hungarian 3.5%
Romani 2.1%
Bosniak 2%
other 5.7%
Languages
Serbian (official) 88.1%, Hungarian 3.4%, Bosnian 1.9%, Romani 1.4%
Religions
Orthodox 84.6%
Catholic 5%
Muslim 3.1%
Protestant 1%
Atheist 1.1%
Population distribution A fairly even distribution throughout most of the country, with urban areas attracting larger and denser populations. [1]
Political Context
Government
Government type: Parliamentary Republic
Capital: Belgrade (Beograd)
Administrative divisions: 117 municipalities and 28 cities.
Executive Branch Chief of State:
President Aleksandar VUCIC (since 31 May 2017)
Head of government: Prime Minister Milos Vucevic (since 2 May 2024)
Cabinet: Cabinet elected by the National Assembly
Elections/appointments: president directly elected by absolute majority popular vote in 2 rounds if needed for a 5-year term (eligible for a second term); election last held on 17 December 2023 (next to be held in 2028); prime minister elected by the National Assembly.
Election results:
2022: Aleksandar VUCIC reelected in first round; percent of vote - Aleksandar VUCIC (SNS) 60%, Zdravko PONOS (US) 18.9%, Milos JOVANOVIC (NADA) 6.1%, Bosko OBRADOVIC (Dveri-POKS) 4.5%
2017: Aleksandar VUCIC elected president in first round; percent of vote - Aleksandar VUCIC (SNS) 55.1%, Sasa JANKOVIC (independent) 16.4%, Luka MAKSIMOVIC (independent) 9.4%, Vuk JEREMIC (independent) 5.7%, Vojislav SESELJ (SRS) Prime Minister Ana BRNABIC reelected by the National Assembly on 5 October 2020;
Legislative Branch
Description: unicameral National Assembly or Narodna Skupstina (250 seats; members directly elected by party-list proportional representation vote in a single nationwide constituency to serve 4-year terms)
Elections: last held on 17 December 2023 (next to be held in 2027)
Election results:
Percent of vote by party/coalition:
Serbia Must not Stop 48%
SPN 24.4%
SPS-JS-ZS
6.7%
NADA 5.2%
MI-GIN 4.8%
other 8.1%
Seats by party/coalition:
Serbia Must Not Stop 128,
SPN 65,
SPS-JS-ZS 18
NADA 13
MI-GIN 13
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians 6 SPP-DSHV 3
Composition - men 155, women 95; percentage of women 38%
Judicial branch
Highest court: Supreme Court of Cassation, Constitutional Court.
Subordinate courts: basic courts, higher courts, appellate courts; courts of special jurisdiction include the Administrative Court, commercial courts, and misdemeanour courts [2]
Economic context
Economic overview
Real GDP (purchasing power parity)
$162.213 billion (2023 est.)
$158.214 billion (2022 est.)
$154.28 billion (2021 est.)
Real GDP growth rate
2.53% (2023 est.)
2.55% (2022 est.)
7.73% (2021 est.)
Agricultural products: Maize, wheat, sugar beets, milk, sunflower seeds, potatoes, plums, apples, barley, soybeans Industries: Automobiles, base metals, furniture, food processing, machinery, chemicals, sugar, tyres, clothes, pharmaceuticals
Industrial production growth rate: 3.62% (2023 est.) Labour force: 3.333 million Unemployment rate: 8.68% (2023 est.), 8.68% (2022 est.), 10.06% (2021 est.) [2]
International Political Context
Serbia occupies a strategic position in the Balkans and plays a significant role in regional and international politics. Its foreign policy is shaped by its historical ties, regional dynamics, and efforts to balance relationships with major powers such as the European Union (EU), Russia, China, and the United States.
1. European Union Accession EU Membership Aspirations: Serbia has been a candidate for EU membership since 2012, and accession negotiations have been ongoing. EU integration is a central goal of Serbia’s foreign policy, and the country has opened several negotiation chapters, including key areas like the Green Agenda and sustainable connectivity.
However, progress is slow, particularly due to the unresolved status of Kosovo and strained relations with some EU members, such as Croatia. The EU demands normalisation of relations with Kosovo as a precondition for further advancement in the accession process.
Kosovo Issue: The normalisation of relations with Kosovo remains the biggest challenge for Serbia’s EU accession. Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but Serbia, backed by Russia and China, has not recognized it. The EU has mediated talks between Belgrade and Pristina, but a comprehensive agreement remains elusive. Progress on this front is essential for Serbia to move forward with EU accession.
2. Balancing Relations with Russia and the West Historical Ties with Russia:
Serbia maintains close historical, cultural, and political ties with Russia, which is one of its key allies. Russia supports Serbia on the Kosovo issue, vetoing attempts to grant Kosovo full recognition in international forums such as the United Nations. Economically, Serbia is dependent on Russian energy, particularly gas supplies.
However, Serbia has tried to maintain a neutral stance in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, balancing its relationship with the EU and the West. Neutrality on Russia-Ukraine War: Despite EU pressure, Serbia has refused to impose sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, citing its traditional relationship with Moscow.
This position has complicated Serbia’s EU accession process, as Brussels expects alignment with its foreign policy positions.
3. China’s Growing Influence Belt and Road Initiative: China has become a significant economic partner for Serbia, investing heavily in infrastructure projects, mining, and energy through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Chinese companies are involved in major projects, such as highways, railways, and the modernisation of Serbia’s steel and copper industries.
These investments have strengthened Serbia’s ties with China, providing an alternative to Western economic partnerships. Strategic Partnership: Serbia views China as a strategic partner and has deepened cooperation in technology and defence sectors.
While these ties benefit Serbia’s economy, they also raise concerns in the EU and the U.S., which see China’s growing influence in the Balkans as part of a broader geopolitical competition.
4. Relations with the United States U.S. Support for EU Integration: The United States supports Serbia’s path toward EU membership and has encouraged normalization with Kosovo. Washington has mediated some talks between Serbia and Kosovo, but Serbia’s reluctance to recognise Kosovo’s independence remains a sticking point in U.S.-Serbia relations.
Security Cooperation: Serbia cooperates with the U.S. on security matters, particularly through initiatives like the Partnership for Peace (PfP) program, which is linked to NATO. Although Serbia maintains a policy of military neutrality, it collaborates with NATO on issues such as defence reforms and regional stability, while rejecting full NATO membership due to the legacy of the 1999 NATO bombings during the Kosovo War.
5. Regional Leadership and Challenges Balkan Diplomacy: Serbia plays a leading role in the Western Balkans, seeking to position itself as a stabilizing force in the region. It has strong political and economic ties with neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Hungary.
However, relations with Croatia remain tense due to historical disputes and disagreements over the war in the 1990s. Serbia is also involved in initiatives such as the "Open Balkan" project, aimed at fostering economic cooperation and integration with Albania and North Macedonia.
Serbia-Kosovo Tensions: In addition to its dispute with Kosovo, Serbia faces challenges in its relationship with Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly with the Republika Srpska entity, which has strong ties to Serbia. Serbia’s role in the Western Balkans is critical to the region’s stability, but ethnic tensions and unresolved conflicts complicate its diplomacy.
6. Economic Diplomacy
Serbia engages in economic diplomacy to attract foreign investment and strengthen trade relationships, particularly with the EU, which is Serbia’s largest trading partner. The country has benefited from EU pre-accession funds and international financial support, but it also seeks to diversify its economic ties by engaging with non-Western countries, including China, Russia, and the Gulf states.
Free Trade Agreements: Serbia has signed several free trade agreements with countries inside and outside the EU, including the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA). It also has agreements with Russia, Turkey, and members of the Eurasian Economic Union, allowing it to access multiple markets while enhancing its role as a regional trade hub.
7. Challenges to International Relations Judicial Reform and Corruption:
Serbia’s international reputation is hindered by concerns over the rule of law, corruption, and media freedom. The EU and international organizations have urged Serbia to implement judicial reforms and tackle high levels of corruption, which are seen as obstacles to EU membership and foreign investment.
Demographic and Social Issues: Serbia faces long-term challenges such as an ageing population and brain drain, with many young Serbians emigrating to the EU for better opportunities. These demographic issues, along with stagnant household incomes and high unemployment compared to the EU average, pose significant hurdles to Serbia’s economic and political stability in the global arena.
In conclusion, Serbia is navigating a complex international political landscape by balancing its EU aspirations, historical ties with Russia, growing partnership with China, and regional leadership ambitions. Its position on Kosovo, relations with Russia, and internal reforms remain pivotal to its foreign policy and international relations. [3]
Current Events
Currently, Serbia is navigating a complex political landscape influenced by both domestic and international challenges:
1. Kosovo Relations: The dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo remains one of the country's most pressing political issues. In 2024, Serbia is expected to continue implementing parts of the Ohrid Agreement, particularly the formation of the Community of Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo.
This ongoing dialogue is crucial for Serbia's European Union (EU) accession process and is heavily influenced by Western political interests, especially with upcoming elections in the EU and the U.S.
2. EU Accession: Serbia’s relationship with the EU is at a critical juncture. Despite making progress on some chapters in the EU accession talks, Serbia faces slow negotiations, particularly due to unresolved tensions with Kosovo and concerns about governance. The EU is also implementing the ETIAS system, which introduces additional travel requirements for Serbian citizens, creating frustration in the region as it further delays integration with the EU.
3. Pressure Regarding Russia: Serbia has maintained a delicate balancing act regarding its foreign policy with Russia. There is international pressure on Serbia to impose sanctions on Russia, especially as the EU and the U.S. seek foreign policy successes before their elections. Serbia's close ties with Russia, especially on energy issues, complicate this decision.
4. Domestic Politics: On the domestic front, Serbia is facing local elections in several municipalities, which could serve as a platform for opposition parties to challenge the ruling government. There are also ongoing discussions about the possibility of repeated elections in Belgrade due to the lack of a clear majority in the city assembly.
5. Environmental Concerns: Serbia's plans for exploiting lithium resources, particularly the Jadar project, have sparked significant environmental protests. Citizens are concerned about the environmental impact, leading to tension between development goals and ecological preservation. [4]
