Taiwan’s nuclear future hinges on voter anxiety over health and safety

Julien Oeuillet, a Taiwan-based journalist, told Global South World that public concern is less about energy efficiency or industrial needs and more about the potential risks nuclear power may pose to people’s well-being.

“What I see from the majority of people is [that this issue is] primarily a health concern,” Ouillet, a radio show host and documentarist, said. “A lot of people who oppose nuclear power are afraid precisely of the adverse effect it would have on health, even without a disaster.” 

Maanshan’s second reactor was shut down in May 2025, four decades after it began operating in 1985. Its first reactor was turned off in 2024 under the “nuclear-free homeland” policy announced by the Democratic Progressive Party in 2016.

Studies on nuclear power and health outcomes remain mixed.

A National Library of Medicine-published study covering 175 nuclear power plants in 17 countries found differing cancer risks between workers and nearby residents. 

Data from more than 480,000 workers and 7.5 million residents showed workers had lower overall cancer risk but higher rates of mesothelioma – a rare type of cancer —while residents faced increased risks of all cancers, thyroid cancer, and leukaemia. 

A Taiwan-specific study, also published in the National Library of Medicine, found no significant differences in leukaemia, thyroid, lung, or breast cancers among populations living near nuclear plants. 

Cervical cancer rates were higher in plant-vicinity areas, though researchers said this was not consistently tied to plant operations.

Still, even the suggestion of health risks is enough to fuel voter anxiety, Oeuillet said.

“The mere possibility that maybe nuclear can be adverse to their health is immediately something that creates a very big reaction, perhaps even more than other countries, he added. “This country is specifically concerned about the quality of health, so anything that can touch health immediately creates a strong reaction.”

China factor ‘overblown’

The referendum comes as tensions with China escalate and the year 2027 approaches — a date U.S. military officials have warned could mark Beijing’s deadline for “reunifying” with the self-ruled island. 

Some analysts argue that abandoning nuclear energy could increase Taiwan’s vulnerability to a Chinese invasion by making its power supply more fragile and incapable of surviving a military blockade.

But Oeuillet said the China angle is exaggerated, especially in foreign coverage, and does not reflect how the Taiwanese view the issue.

“We have to be careful about what is said outside of Taiwan and the way people feel inside Taiwan,” he said. 

“[China] has absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with this, but it has become difficult to talk about Taiwan without necessarily putting this in the equation,” he added. “The vast majority of people absolutely do not have China in mind when they decide whether they want nuclear power or not.”

According to the International Energy Agency, only 5.3% of Taiwan’s electricity currently comes from nuclear power. Fossil fuels remain the most dominant power source, with coal providing 34.6% and oil 34.2%.

While the referendum is significant, Oeuillet said it would not fundamentally impact Taiwan’s energy landscape.

“It is important enough to discuss it, to decide whether we want it or not, but it's not going to be a revolution,” he said.

“The question is, more or less, the same as any other country — is nuclear efficient or is it dangerous, with the added risk of this place being prone to earthquakes and typhoons. But otherwise the same debate could exist in Japan, in Europe, in America, or in any country where nuclear power is a possibility.”

Nuclear-free 2025?

Voters will be asked on Saturday whether they agree that the Maanshan Nuclear Power Plant should continue operation upon approval by the competent authority and confirmation that there are no safety concerns.

For the proposal to pass, "agree" votes must exceed "disagree" votes and make up at least one-quarter of Taiwan’s 5 million eligible voters. If rejected, the same question cannot be raised again for two years.

If the referendum succeeds in ending Maanshan’s operations, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party will also achieve its long-stated goal of creating a “nuclear-free homeland” by 2025

Regardless of the outcome, Oeuillet expects strong participation.

“People like to vote in this country, really. People really like to debate and to argue on topics.”