The dynamics of Europe's population since 2000: Growth, ageing and migration

Since the turn of the 21st century, Europe’s population dynamics have undergone significant shifts, shaped by a complex interplay of demographic trends, migration patterns, and socioeconomic change. While some regions have experienced growth and diversification, others have struggled with population decline and ageing.

Between 2000 and the mid-2010s, Europe’s overall population continued to grow, but at a slowing pace. According to Eurostat, the population of the EU-27 increased from approximately 474 million in 2000 to around 448 million by 2023 (note: the drop reflects the UK's exit from the EU rather than an actual decline). However, this growth has not been evenly distributed.

Countries like Germany, France, the UK and Sweden in Western and Northern Europe generally saw moderate growth, largely supported by immigration.

In the southern part, Italy, Spain and Greece experienced slower growth or stagnation, with some areas beginning to shrink. Meanwhile, Eastern Europe and the Baltics saw significant population decline, driven by low birth rates, high emigration rates, and ageing populations.

One of the most notable demographic changes in Europe since 2000 is the ageing of the population. The median age in the EU rose from about 38 years in 2001 to over 44 years by 2023. The proportion of people aged 65 and over has steadily increased, while the share of working-age individuals (15–64 years) has declined.

Some countries, like Germany, Italy, and Greece, are facing particularly acute ageing trends, while others like Ireland and France have slightly younger populations due to higher fertility rates and more youthful immigrant populations.

On the other hand, fertility rates across Europe have remained below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. Most EU countries have fertility rates between 1.3 and 1.7, with some of the lowest levels seen in Italy, Spain, and Portugal since 2000.

In terms of migration, the post-2004 EU enlargement saw millions of workers move from Eastern to Western Europe. The refugee crisis in 2015 also brought a significant influx of asylum seekers from Syria, Afghanistan, and other conflict zones. To top it up, Labour migration and intra-EU mobility have continued to influence regional demographics, often revitalising urban centres while depopulating rural and peripheral regions.

And then there is Brexit! The United Kingdom’s exit from the EU in 2020 also reshaped Europe’s demographic landscape. The UK had been one of the EU's most populous and fastest-growing countries, largely due to high levels of immigration and a relatively youthful population. Its departure altered both statistical trends and actual migration patterns across the continent.