'We don’t expect any candidate to pass 50%': Why Malawi’s election could head to a runoff
Malawi is heading into an election clouded by uncertainty, with analysts warning of a likely runoff, deep tribal divisions, and technical failures that could trigger a political crisis.
Speaking to Global South World, a Malawian political scientist, Wonderful Mkhutche, said the mood on the ground is far less enthusiastic than in past elections. “People are excited to vote, but when it comes to thinking about the country beyond the elections, there’s not much hope among most voters,” he observed.
Mkhutche explained that Malawian politics remains strongly shaped by tribal allegiances, with the two leading parties drawing support primarily from the country’s two largest ethnic groups. While economic issues are at the centre of campaign rhetoric, he stressed that “we cannot ignore the tribal part.”
Neutral voters, however, could prove decisive. “This election has left many people undecided on who can be the best president. Besides the two leading candidates drawing from their core tribes, neutral voters will also decide who comes out on top,” he noted.
Recent polling has suggested momentum swings between the ruling Malawi Congress Party (MCP) and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Afrobarometer surveys earlier this year indicated the DPP had an edge, but the analyst cautioned that the dynamics have since shifted. “The opposition has the people’s attention because they promise to rescue the country from economic decline. But the ruling party has gathered momentum, crisscrossing the country and positioning itself as the party that can deliver.”
The survey done in collaboration with the University of Malawi (UNIMA)’s Centre for Social Research indicates that 43% of respondents would have cast their vote for the DPP, placing the party ahead of its closest competitor, the Malawi Congress Party (MCP), which garnered 29% of potential support.
With both sides locked in fierce competition, he believes a second round is highly likely. “We do not expect either of these two to go past the 50 percent plus one mark required in our electoral system. The likelihood of a runoff is high.”
Concerns also linger about the credibility of the electoral process. A recent dry run of the electronic transmission system exposed multiple technical failures, fueling opposition scepticism. “Even though the Electoral Commission is working to fix these issues, they are likely to reappear during the vote. Should the opposition lose, the result will almost certainly be challenged,” Mkhutche warned.
Despite the tensions, the analyst said Malawi’s democratic institutions remain intact. “Our democracy is good. There is a clear separation of powers, and each arm of government is acting within its mandate.”
Still, he called on international observers and partners to closely monitor the process. “We expect a peaceful election, but times are changing. The world must keep an eye on Malawi. Should anything go wrong, global partners should help put things in order.”
The election, he said, will be a test not just of leadership but of Malawi’s democratic resilience. “After this election, we want to show the world that our democracy is consolidating, growing, and moving forward.”
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
