Who won, who waned: Global South economies in 2025

Beneath that headline, however, performance has remained sharply uneven — particularly across the Global South, where conflict, commodities and domestic policy choices drove widely diverging outcomes.

Some developing economies benefited from rebounds in energy production, strong remittances and post-crisis recoveries. Others were dragged down by violence, political instability and structural weaknesses. 

Global South World reviewed the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2025 projections — a closely watched outlook produced by the Washington-based lender that monitors economic developments worldwide — to identify the year’s strongest and weakest performers.

BIGGEST WINNERS

Republic of South Sudan (24.3%)

South Sudan’s surge reflects a rebound in oil production following earlier pipeline disruptions and conflict-related shutdowns, amplified by a low base. The IMF cautioned that the recovery remains fragile and almost entirely dependent on crude exports, leaving the economy highly exposed to price and security shocks.

Libya (15.6%)

Libya’s growth was driven by higher crude output after repeated blockades eased, boosting exports and government spending. In May, the North African country recorded a 12-year high in oil production, reaching 1.23 million barrels per day, underscoring the economy’s continued reliance on hydrocarbons.

Guyana (10.3%)

Guyana remained one of the world’s fastest-growing economies as new offshore oil projects came online, lifting exports and funding public investment. This followed a 43.4% expansion in 2024, when oil production reached 225 million barrels. Spillovers from the energy sector continued to fuel construction, manufacturing and agriculture, while non-oil GDP rose 13.1%, driven largely by government-led capital spending.

Kyrgyz Republic (8.0%)

Growth continued to be supported by the services sector, which accounts for nearly half of GDP. In 2025, services, goods production and rising tax revenues emerged as the economy’s main bright spots, helping offset external pressures.

Tajikistan (7.5%)

Tajikistan’s expansion was underpinned by growth in services and industry, optimism over energy investments, strong consumer demand and private-sector activity. Real GDP rose 8.2% in the first three quarters of 2025, while inflation remained contained at 2.8% year on year in September.

BIGGEST LOSERS

Haiti (-3.1%)

Haiti’s economy continued to contract as gang violence, political paralysis and collapsing institutions disrupted trade, investment and basic services. It remains one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere, with nearly two-thirds of the population living below the poverty line.

Myanmar (-2.7%)

Myanmar remained in recession amid ongoing civil conflict, sanctions and capital flight following the 2021 military coup. The economy also grappled with the aftermath of a March earthquake that triggered large reconstruction needs. Inflation is expected to stay above 20% in the near term, further straining household budgets.

Equatorial Guinea (-1.6%)

The contraction reflected heightened global uncertainty and declining hydrocarbon production. Despite falling output, poverty is projected to ease modestly — from 57.0% in 2024 to 55.8% by 2027 — supported by expansion in labour-intensive agriculture and services.

Yemen (-1.5%)

Yemen’s economy remained under pressure from protracted conflict and disrupted oil exports. In areas controlled by the internationally recognised government, inflation continued to erode purchasing power. In Houthi-controlled regions, airstrikes on key ports and persistent liquidity shortages further constrained imports and access to essential goods.

Botswana (-0.9%)

Botswana slipped into contraction as weaker global diamond demand weighed on exports and fiscal revenues, compounded by drought pressures. Rising debt risks prompted the government to introduce austerity measures, tightening conditions further.