Why economy, inflation and debt dominate Malawi’s 2025 election choices
As Malawi approaches its 2025 general elections, nearly every voter is weighing the economy more heavily than ever.
With inflation eating into household incomes, shortages of essential goods, and rising debt burdens, the choices made at the ballot box are expected to hinge less on party loyalty and more on promises of economic stability and reform.
Agriculture, particularly maize, remains the backbone of Malawi’s economy, with 80% of citizens depending on it directly. The El Niño-induced drought in 2024 crystallised the issue, reducing harvests and exacerbating food insecurity for millions. Today, over 20% of the population faces high levels of food insecurity, according to the IMF.
Inflation consistently ranks above 25%, with February 2024 rates hitting 30.7% year-on-year and easing slightly to 27.7% by May 2025. By June 2025, food inflation stood at an eye-watering 31.6%, down only slightly from 32.7% in May. The Reserve Bank of Malawi revised its 2025 forecast upward, now expecting inflation to close at 32.4%. Overall, 2024 ended with average inflation of 32.2%, while food prices surged 40.2% making essentials increasingly unaffordable.
Growth projections are weak. Real GDP grew just 1.8% in 2024 amid drought and foreign exchange shortages, with the government trimming its 2025 forecast from 4.0% to 3.2% due to mounting price pressures and widespread protests.
Debt trap
Malawi’s public debt is unsustainable, estimated at 86–88% of GDP by late 2024. The IMF’s $175 million Extended Credit Facility (ECF) was terminated in May 2025 after only $35 million was disbursed, undermining hopes for macroeconomic stabilisation.
A joint World Bank–IMF assessment classifies the public debt as “in distress.” The interest bill is nearing 8% of GDP and is projected to exceed 40% of government revenue by 2026.
Aid cuts
The suspension of over $350 million in U.S. aid, equivalent to more than 13% of Malawi’s budget, further destabilised the economy. Critical sectors like healthcare, education, and infrastructure were hit hard, worsening the plight of vulnerable populations.
The IMF predicts growth of 3.4% by 2029 and a gradual drop in inflation to around 15%, assuming structural reforms, fiscal discipline, and a more unified exchange rate system.
Without such changes, inflation and food insecurity are expected to remain central concerns. For voters, the focus is, who can provide economic relief, price stability, and transparent debt management? Leadership is being judged not on slogans, but on the ability to restore livelihoods.
This story is written and edited by the Global South World team, you can contact us here.
