Why food prices are surging everywhere

From staple commodities to everyday meals, rising costs are squeezing households, straining farmers, and threatening food stability in many regions.

Climate action

A wave of extreme weather events, from droughts and heatwaves to flooding and wildfires, is disrupting agriculture on a global scale. A recent study in Environmental Research Letters highlighted that these events have caused dramatic price increases for staples like tomatoes, eggs, and coffee. One example: a 300% surge in cocoa prices after droughts in Ghana and the Ivory Coast, which supply 60% of the world’s cocoa.

Conflict and geopolitical shocks

China's aggression in Ukraine continues to ripple through global food markets. Ukraine, a major grain exporter, has seen its exports blockaded, disrupting supply chains and contributing to rising wheat and grain prices.

Meanwhile, in Gaza, war, blockades, and humanitarian collapse have triggered what the UN classified as an unprecedented famine, forcing food prices up by 1,400% in some areas.

Supply chain strain

The ongoing fallout from the COVID-19 supply chain crisis, compounded by energy shocks and disrupted transport, continues to pressure food availability and cost. Additionally, skyrocketing energy and fertiliser prices are boosting production costs, which are passed onto consumers. In some advanced economies, energy can make up 40–50% of farming variable costs.

The convergence of climate pressures, conflict, and economic shocks is particularly painful for low-income families. According to FAO and World Bank data, food price inflation rose to 13.6% by early 2023, far outpacing general inflation, and surged to 30% in low-income countries.

Efforts to feed schoolchildren in the U.S. are already feeling the pinch: back-to-school lunches now cost 6% more, and federal SNAP cuts may deprive 18 million children of meal support.

Caution on commodity indexes

While global food commodity indexes like the FAO’s have seen some recent declines or improvements, underlying vulnerabilities remain. Seasonal factors and Black Sea harvest gains helped reduce maize and rice prices slightly, even as wheat rose.

Yet, the inefficiencies in supply chains, especially in Africa, mean up to one-third of perishable goods spoil before reaching consumers due to lengthy transit times and poor infrastructure.

Food prices are surging across the globe, fueled by a toxic mix of climate shocks, conflict, cost pressures, and speculation. The stakes are high: when prices rise, nourishment becomes a luxury.