Why is Ethiopia accusing Eritrea of preparing to wage war?

In a letter sent to UN Secretary-General António Guterres on 2 October, Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos claimed that “the hardliner faction of the TPLF and the Eritrean government are actively preparing to wage war against Ethiopia.”

The letter, seen by AFP, warned that the alleged collusion “had become more evident over the past few months.”

The Ethiopian government accused both Eritrea and the TPLF of “funding, mobilising and directing armed groups” in the Amhara region, where Fano militiamen have been engaged in conflict with federal forces.

Eritrea has not yet commented on the contents of the letter. However, relations between the two neighbours have been increasingly strained in recent months, with the Red Sea emerging as a major flashpoint.

Eritrea gained control of the Red Sea coastline when it became independent from Ethiopia in 1993. The two countries later fought a brutal border war from 1998 to 2000, which killed tens of thousands of people.

Tensions between them had eased after Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018 and built an alliance with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki. But relations have since deteriorated, especially as Ethiopia pushes for renewed access to the Red Sea.

According to Addis Standard, the letter from the foreign minister accused Eritrea and TPLF hardliners of supporting Fano's attempted capture of Woldiya, a town in the Amhara region, in September. The paper reported that “TPLF commanders and fighters participated directly in the operation,” quoting the letter.

The letter also stated that the Eritrean government is attempting to destabilise Ethiopia as it felt threatened by Addis Ababa's bid to gain access to the Red Sea.

A faction of the TPLF led by Debretsion Gebremichael controls the government in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, which borders Eritrea. That faction accuses Abiy’s government of failing to fully implement the 2022 peace deal that ended the Tigray conflict. It also claims that another TPLF faction, led by Getachew Reda, is working with the federal government in Addis Ababa.

Eritrea, which supported Ethiopian forces during the Tigray conflict, was not a party to the 2022 peace deal. It is now being accused of aligning itself with the Debretsion-led TPLF faction against the federal government.

Meanwhile, conflict in Ethiopia’s Amhara region has intensified. The Fano militias, formerly allies of the government against the TPLF, have refused to disarm, accusing the government of targeting the Amhara ethnic group. The militias appear to be expanding their goals, with increasing efforts to topple the federal government and mounting deadly operations.

Speaking in Ethiopia’s parliament on Monday, President Taye Atske Selassie described the Red Sea and River Nile as “great water resources, which are essential to our country's existence.”

In response, Eritrea’s Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel dismissed the comments, saying the rhetoric was “too crass and pathetic to sell.” He added that the Ethiopian ruling party's “obsession” with the Red Sea and River Nile was “bizarre and mind-boggling by all standards.”

Despite the strict accusations, Ethiopia's letter to the UN also indicated a desire for peaceful resolution, stating that the country “hoped to negotiate with the Eritrean government over this issue.”