Why the world has become less peaceful over the last 17 years

The report, which analyses 163 countries using 23 indicators, shows that peace has declined by 5.4% since 2008.

Out of all countries assessed, 94 became less peaceful, while only 66 showed improvement.

Two of the three main areas measured, ongoing conflict and safety and security, have worsened, with ongoing conflicts rising by 17.5%.

Only militarisation showed some improvement, but that trend has reversed in recent years.

What are the major causes?

Some of the biggest causes of the decline are the increase in external and internal wars, the rising number of refugees and displaced people, as well as weaker relations between neighbouring countries. Sixty countries now have poorer ties with their neighbours than in 2008, while only 19 have improved.

International cooperation in trade, diplomacy, and military alliances has also weakened.

Since the 2008 financial crisis, global integration has steadily declined. Countries are looking more inward, and trade restrictions have sharply risen, surpassing 3,000 in 2023, almost three times more than in 2019.

Debt burdens in developing countries are another big factor. On average, these nations now spend 42% of their government revenue on debt repayments, with China being the biggest lender.

Meanwhile, peacebuilding efforts have lost momentum. Spending on peacekeeping is now less than 1% of global military expenditure, and the number of peacekeeping troops has fallen by 42% in the past decade.

Nuclear-armed states have all increased or maintained their arsenals since 2022.

A new arms race is also emerging in high-tech weaponry such as AI-powered drones and space-targeting systems, driven by growing rivalry between major powers.

Conflicts that involve foreign military involvement inside another country have gone up by 175% since 2010. This includes 78 countries participating in wars beyond their borders.

The GPI now identifies 34 countries as having significant influence in the affairs of other nations, up from just six in the 1970s.

Experts believe that power is shifting toward middle-income countries, while Western economies struggle, and both the US and China approach the limits of their global influence. China’s economic model is showing signs of strain, with debt levels around 300% of GDP and comparisons being made to Japan’s situation in the late 1980s.

Conflicts could worsen in the coming years

The report also warns that certain current conflicts could grow worse. Based on nine identified risk factors such as ethnic exclusion, foreign military support, and the political use of violence, four countries stand out: South Sudan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Syria.

The Institute for Economics and Peace, which compiles the index, said: "Geopolitical fragmentation is a major driver of conflict today. The old global order is breaking down, and a new, more volatile one is emerging."