Nuclear energy is officially out in Taiwan—What now?

While 4.3 million voters backed restarting operations in the island’s last reactor, far outnumbering the 1.5 million opposed, the result was still insufficient to overturn its May decommissioning.

Saturday’s outcome effectively seals the phaseout of nuclear power on the island, once a cornerstone of its electricity mix, and fulfils the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s pledge to create a “nuclear-free homeland.” 

What happens next remains uncertain. For some analysts, the strong but insufficient support for nuclear power could prompt policymakers to rethink their hardline stance.

“The result sends a very strong signal to the government that more Taiwanese people, in fact, are not in favour of the government's current stance of completely ruling out nuclear power as one of the sources of energy for Taiwan,” William Hao-Wei Yang, a Taiwanese analyst with the International Crisis Group, told Global South World.

“This result has already pushed the government to come out and positively respond to the more than 4.3 million Taiwanese people's votes,” he added. “I believe that this could lead to further reconsideration for the ruling party regarding its longstanding opposition to nuclear power.”

Turnout, more than the arguments from the anti-nuclear camp, proved decisive in the referendum. Only about a quarter of Taiwan’s nearly 20 million eligible voters cast their ballots, leading to the sub-threshold result.

Yang argues that limited public engagement stemmed from poor communication and a lack of emphasis from political leaders.

“This issue hasn't really been the defining topic that has mobilised a large number of Taiwanese people to come out and participate in voting,” he said. “Neither the opposition parties nor the ruling party has put enough emphasis on this particular topic.”

“This remains an issue that needs more public discussion and perhaps more, you know, grassroots level public education so that Taiwanese people have a broader understanding about where they might want to stand on this particular issue going forward,” he added. 

Nuclear not gone for good

Doing away with nuclear power has long been a signature promise of the Democratic Progressive Party, giving the August referendum undeniable political undertones.

“In Taiwan, relevant conversations oftentimes become too politicised, and that overshadows the necessary scientific factors and elements that should be included in the discussion and debate," Yang said.

While the outcome bolstered the party’s credibility in pursuing its “nuclear-free homeland” policy, it also exposed growing unease with its uncompromising stance, according to Yang.

“(Saturday’s) outcome means more than just their energy policy,” he said. “(It reflects the) public's discontent with the approach that the ruling party has adopted since President Lai Ching-te came to power in May 2024,” 

“I think we might in fact see a fundamental shift — or at least an adjustment — from the ruling party when it comes to their policies on energy,” he added. “It could set off a re-evaluation within the ruling party about the validity of its political slogan (nuclear-free homeland).”

After the vote, Taiwan President Lai Ching-te, a staunch opponent of nuclear power, acknowledged what he called “society’s expectations for diverse energy options.”

"If in the future, the technology becomes safer, nuclear waste is reduced, and societal acceptance increases, we will not rule out advanced nuclear energy," he told reporters on Saturday.

That tentative opening could leave a path forward for nuclear power in Taiwan, Yang noted.

“Based on the consensus and the government's positive response to the outcome, it could probably help find that path for civil society, but also Taiwan as a whole, to move forward when it comes to resolving the current dilemma that Taiwan faces when it comes to improving energy resilienc in a scientific and safe way,” the analyst said.

A path forward

Debates over nuclear power in Taiwan have largely focused on health concerns, energy security, and the economy, and arguments for nuclear power have mostly centred on restarting decades-old plants. 

Pro-nuclear groups often point to Taiwan’s reliance on imports for about 98% of its energy, a vulnerability for the world’s leading semiconductor maker. Before its shutdown, nuclear power provided about 5.3% of the island’s electricity supply.

Yang warned that without a serious policy rethink, this dependence will persist.

“Before the government really adjusts its energy policy and makes a public commitment to pursue advanced nuclear-based energy solutions, Taiwan, unfortunately, will continue to have to rely on 98% of its energy imported from abroad,” he said. 

Yang also underscored the need for a more nuanced approach to Taiwan’s energy problems.

“At this point, the majority of the Taiwanese public's understanding about different types of nuclear energy solutions remains very limited, and that is not going to help push relevant conversations forward,” he said. 

“The government will have to genuinely consider taking the initiative to organise nationwide local-level information sessions to raise public awareness about relevant issues, and then that can lead to a better-informed public and also a better-informed policymaking process.” 

While Saturday’s referendum failed to overturn the standing nuclear-free homeland policy, Yang believes it could mark the beginning of a broader discussion in Taiwan. 

“I think it will accelerate the domestic discussion, and it really sends a sense of urgency that will push politicians, both the government but also lawmakers in the parliament, to try to come together and determine a path forward for maintaining Taiwan's energy resilience and at the same time ensuring its ability to provide a stable energy supply.”