The key to Libya's future, the world's most polluted country and unimaginative flags: World Reframed 5

Oil, oil, oil

Libya's reputation over the years has been as a terrorist nation under Colonel Gaddafi, then a country in civil war and lately an exporter of migrants. But really what the country should have been known for is as a petrostate, because it has the largest oil reserves in Africa.

Those oil reserves have helped to define its modern shape. They allowed Gaddafi to remain in power for four decades by giving him the resources to reward the loyalty of those he needed and offer generous welfare benefits of free healthcare, education and subsidised fuel to the Libyan people.

But after his fall from power in 2011, rather than bringing the country together, oil started to pull it apart, with one faction based in Tripoli in the west and one group in Benghazi in the east both trying to control oil revenues and even signing exploration agreements with foreign companies and countries.

Security and intelligence consultancy Eigenrac have set out the scenarios that they could see and they have produced a report on globalsouthworld.com. Ultimately the status quo could break in two ways:

• If the African Union or another party is able to find a compromise that both sides can sign up to in order to share oil revenues equitably.
• Or a complete breakdown of the system where individual regions take control of the resources in their area and potentially fragment even further.

For now, the triggers for either scenario are not present. But it’s definitely one to watch.

Bolivia turns right

Bolivia is heading to a runoff election this October. After two decades of leftist dominance under Evo Morales and Luis Arce, voters are looking elsewhere, and that shift is dramatic.

Last week Global South World interviewed the two leading vice presidential candidates. The frontrunner going into the second round is Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who took about 32% of the vote. Right behind him is Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a former president, who scored nearly 27%. Both are opposition candidates, which means for the first time in decades, Bolivia is preparing for a government led by the right.

Pereira's journey to the top spot is fascinating: his campaign was grassroots all the way from buses, shared taxis, going town to town. And his running mate? A TikTok-star and ex-policeman, Edman Lara. That outsider energy really connected with voters. Meanwhile, the governing Movement for Socialism (MAS) party has been pushed to the margins. Their candidate barely scraped 3%.

Bolivia joins a broader regional trend, from Argentina to El Salvador, where voters are turning away from leftist governments. And whichever candidate wins, there are some major economic and social changes coming down the line to get control of inflation and bail out the economy. It’s going to be painful, but Bolivians will be hoping that once they get through it they will have a more stable country where they don’t have to queue for essentials or cut back their shopping each month.

'Prove it or apologise'

In India, the country’s Election Commission has issued a stark warning to opposition leader Rahul Gandhi: “show proof or apologise.” Gandhi accused the commission of what he called “vote theft”... saying the electoral roll was packed with fake entries and duplicate voters. The Election Commission shot back, demanding either a sworn affidavit with evidence or a public apology.

The Chief Election Commissioner said there’s no third option. Which raises the stakes, because Gandhi has been trying to build a narrative around what he calls “vote chori,” or stolen votes.

The Commission says those allegations are baseless, even harmful to India’s democracy. But this is also about political messaging, whether Gandhi doubles down, or backs off, it will shape how India’s opposition positions itself going forward. And even more than that, this case will be closely watched in other countries too. How the participants handle the situation will definitely influence how politicians in surrounding countries and even further round the world try to push their own causes.

Xenophobia in universities

In South Africa, xenophobia seems to be moving up from the streets to universities.

Dr Precious Simba, a Zimbabwean lecturer at Stellenbosch University, told Global South World about her new study on the marginalisation of African academics in South Africa and the findings are heartbreaking. From barriers in hiring, promotion, and research recognition, it’s an extension of the wider hostility that migrants often face in the country.

South African universities have historically benefitted from intellectual solidarity across the continent, especially during apartheid, and were seen as bastions of tolerance and freedom.

Some academic bodies, like the Wits Centre for Diversity Studies, are trying to address the current problems. But the deeper problem of xenophobia within higher education is proving stubborn.

Chad's poisoned air

World Visualized has looked at the nations with the best and worst air quality. Now the best air quality is pretty much exclusively small island nations.

Basically places where you might want to go on holiday - the Bahamas, Bermuda, French Polynesia, the US Virgin Isles. Now it’s easy to imagine why these don’t suffer too much - the surrounding areas are almost completely clear of industry. Also they are typically wealthy and take care about the environment in order to encourage tourism which is a more important opportunity than heavy manufacturing.

But the other list is more interesting. Because it’s not primarily the most industrialised countries, and not even only the most populous ones.

What the data is actually showing is airborne particles called PM2.5 which can get into your lungs and blood and cause conditions such as blocked arteries and lung cancer.

And the country with the biggest issue? Chad.

Partly it is because most people in Chad cook on open fires, which are very inefficient and don’t burn well which means a lot of unburned material is released into the air. Poor waste management also means a lot of rubbish is just burned out in the open.

But there’s another factor which is the Bodélé Depression which is the dried up remains of an ancient lake. Wind blowing across the parched surface picks up dust and spreads it through the air. In fact it travels so far that it’s actually an important source of nutrients for the Amazon rainforest on the other side of the world. But locally it’s a severe health hazard and is known as the world’s number one source of dust.

Aside from trying to green the desert, which would be an immense project, there’s not much to be done. Further down the list are Bangladesh and Pakistan, as a result of their huge population density and heavy industries - India’s northern cities in particular are also famously polluted. However China isn’t there, largely because of the government drive to clean up after the scandals in the run up the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

Cars are now rationed in many Chinese cities and investments made back then in electrification mean a lot of traffic is now zero emissions at the tailpipe.

Africa features heavily through the rest of the list with DR Congo at number four, again significantly because of the widespread use of cooking fires. This contributes towards climate change, deforestation to provide the wood and charcoal but perhaps most pressingly the spread of these deadly fine particles in the air. Global South World has featured a project to expand electricity networks on the continent and this is why it matters so much.

Nominative democratisation

Do you know how many countries are so committed to democracy that they even put it in their name? The World In Maps has done the work.

Duncan

And sticking with the theme of national identity take a look at this eye-opening video showing how unoriginal countries have been in choosing their flags.

• World Reframed episode 4: Bolivia's choice
• World Reframed episode 3: splitting BRICS
• World Reframed episode 2: old leaders, young voters
• World Reframed episode 1: security vs democracy

World Reframed is produced in London for Global South World, part of the Impactum Group. Its editors are Duncan Hooper and Ismail Akwei.